Why is there such a big price difference for HYPE among organizations? From 40 dollars to 360 dollars.

Hyperliquid is undoubtedly the hottest subject in the recent crypto world, with its token HYPE surging to over $56.

Based on a circulating supply of approximately 254 million, its circulating market cap is around $14.4 billion; while based on a maximum supply of 1 billion, its FDV (fully diluted valuation) is approximately $56.7 billion.

Some think it is already too expensive, with some whales voting with their feet, heavily shorting; others believe this is just the beginning, even benchmarking against Robinhood Markets, CME Group, and Nasdaq.

The valuation logic for crypto projects is usually very clear: L1 looks at the ecosystem, DeFi looks at TVL, Memes look at emotional traffic, platform tokens look at fees and buybacks. But HYPE is a complex entity; it is both a perp DEX and its own chain and ecosystem; it has both platform token attributes and real cash flow; it is both like BNB and increasingly intruding into the traditional financial world, resembling a global exchange.

So, how much should HYPE really be worth?

Arthur Hayes: $150 | $38 billion circulating market cap | $150 billion FDV

The most widely circulated HYPE target price in the current market comes from Arthur Hayes.

In March 2026, Arthur Hayes wrote in the article “$$HYPE Man,” “My August 2026 target price for $$HYPE is $150,” expecting to see $150 in August.

The core logic behind this figure given by Arthur Hayes is not simply looking at trading volume growth, but believes that Hyperliquid has become one of the few true “cash flow machines” in the crypto industry. He also wrote, “No other project in all of crypto hands as much money back to token holders as Hyperliquid.”

He said Hyperliquid is more like an exchange constantly buying back shares rather than a traditional altcoin.

DCo: $60 | $15.2 billion circulating market cap | $60 billion FDV

Compared to Arthur Hayes' aggressive stance, the research institution DCo represents a more traditional valuation analysis perspective.

On March 13, 2026, a Hyperliquid valuation model released by DCo was widely shared. It mentioned, “HYPE’s current price of $37 has fallen below the bear market target price of $60.” In other words, even according to their most conservative “bear market valuation model,” HYPE should reach $60, and it is already close to their predicted position.

The core logic of DCo is to directly compare Hyperliquid to CME. They believe that Hyperliquid's revenue scale was already close to 15% of CME's at that time, but its overall valuation was far below CME. The market did not truly factor in future potential such as HIP-3, multi-asset trading, and a global liquidity network into HYPE's price.

Coincub Conservative Version: $120 | $30.5 billion circulating market cap | $120 billion FDV

Coincub Bull Market Version: $300 | $76.2 billion circulating market cap | $300 billion FDV

The research platform Coincub provided models based on crypto market trends, divided into two versions.

The conservative version predicts $50-120. Coincub's valuation logic is that Hyperliquid will gradually become a on-chain derivatives infrastructure and continuously absorb trading volume from centralized exchanges. If a crypto bull market returns, they believe HYPE should rise to $180-300.

They believe Hyperliquid is not just an excellent DeFi protocol; it has begun to compete with global trading platforms like Binance and Coinbase and can gain adoption from institutional traders, entering the “global trading infrastructure” valuation system.

CoinCodex: $100 | $25.4 billion circulating market cap | $100 billion FDV

The quantitative prediction platform CoinCodex wrote on its prediction page that according to its algorithm model, HYPE is expected to reach $100 in February 2027, but the forecast range for 2026 is still concentrated between $41-56.

From CoinCodex's perspective, HYPE does have long-term growth potential, but the market has already reflected expectations in the short term.

Coinpedia: $185 | $47 billion circulating market cap | $185 billion FDV

Coinpedia's HYPE prediction page gives a price range for 2030 of $105-185.

Its core logic is long-term compounding model calculations: Hyperliquid perp volume continues to expand, HyperEVM ecosystem growth, fee capture continues to improve, as well as effective long-term buyback mechanism.

3Commas: $45-50 | $11.4-12.7 billion circulating market cap | $45-50 billion FDV

In the models summarized by 3Commas, TradingBeasts and WalletInvestor predict HYPE’s price in 2026 remains concentrated between $45.2-49.6.

Their models lean more towards technical analysis and historical volatility predictions, and do not give Hyperliquid much “global exchange premium.”

In other words, from their perspective, the current price has reached a reasonable range.

Axel Bitblaze: $180-360 | $45.7-91.4 billion circulating market cap | $180 billion-360 billion FDV

Aside from institutions and research models, more aggressive super bulls have also emerged on X.

Top crypto KOL Axel Bitblaze believes that the reasonable price for HYPE is in the $180-360 range, which has gained much fan support and recognition.

His core logic is that Hyperliquid will ultimately possess the platform attributes of Binance, the chain attributes of Solana, and the trading attributes of CME.

Where is HYPE's valuation ceiling?

Putting together all the clear price opinions from the past period, one finds that the market has formed a layered valuation for HYPE.

Many institutional views suggest that $40-60, around $10-15 billion circulating market cap, and about $40-60 billion FDV basically reflect Hyperliquid's current income capacity, which means that the current price has likely peaked short-term.

The bullish range lies between $100-150, which corresponds to a circulating market cap of about $25-38 billion, and about $100-150 billion FDV.

The most aggressive super bulls have already begun pushing HYPE towards $180-360, corresponding to hundreds of billions in FDV.

Moreover, many institutions, although not explicitly providing price predictions, have also written articles indicating that HYPE should be re-priced.

Matt Hougan stated that the market is still pricing Hyperliquid as a crypto perp DEX, but what Hyperliquid aims to do is actually a global trading platform covering stocks, forex, commodities, and prediction markets.

21Shares wrote in their research, “Hyperliquid not only reacts faster; it even completed pricing of this impact nearly 48 hours ahead of the traditional financial system.”

Institutions have noticed that when geopolitical conflicts and price discovery capabilities in the crude oil market close, the on-chain contracts on Hyperliquid have already completed global pricing ahead of time.

This is also why, since May, more and more institutions have stopped benchmarking Hyperliquid against UNI and dYdX, and have started to benchmark it against CME, ICE, and Nasdaq.

This is the reason the market is ignited; regardless of short-term corrections, the fundamental consensus is that the price of HYPE has significant growth potential before reaching its narrative ceiling.