150,000 people across three continents, from retail investors to hedge fund managers, are following the work of a "Twitter stock god."

Recently, he publicly expressed optimism about a particular stock, leading to a nearly 90% increase in just two days.

On February 17, 2026, at the London Stock Exchange, a small stock named Raspberry Pi within the FTSE 250 index was driven up 27% within the first hour of trading. Over two days, it accumulated nearly 90%, and maintained over 50% growth within the week.

This UK hardware company, valued at over £500 million, had seen its stock price hovering below its IPO issuance price for the past six months.

No analysts believed it would become one of the hottest UK stocks at the start of 2026.

Reuters, Bloomberg, the Financial Times, and The Register all sent reporters to investigate, with all leads pointing to the same source.

The day before Eastern US time, an account with 58,000 followers on X platform posted a tweet titled "Fun trading idea: go long on $RPI."

The account name is Serenity, with the handle @aleabitoreddit, using a female avatar.

The opening of Bloomberg's article states, "It all started on Monday when a user named aleabitoreddit posted a thread titled 'Fun trading idea' on X."

Reuters' report included a direct quote of Serenity's argument regarding Raspberry Pi. When asked about the price fluctuations, the company's spokesperson replied, "There is no information beyond what is publicly known at the company level."

The story isn't over yet.

At the end of March, Raspberry Pi announced its annual earnings report. Revenue grew by 58%, while Serenity had predicted 55% two months prior.

The consensus among sell-side analysts compiled by Bloomberg was only 14%. On the day the earnings report was released, RPI's stock price surged by 44.76% in a single day, followed by another 27.43% increase the next day.

This is why, over the past year, more and more Silicon Valley investors have added this Twitter account to their daily must-read lists.

One tweet triggered a nearly 50% market fluctuation in a FTSE 250 stock over the course of a week, and two months later, a financial report validated his predictions.

Yet, no one knows his real name—the person who repeatedly influences the market.

The Banned Account

Serenity's self-introduction states "AI semiconductor industry chain research institute," "Nature papers," "member of the RISC-V Foundation."

He once joked about being recruited by Nvidia to lead an AI team in 2018, when Nvidia's stock price was around $6.

But he declined.

To understand the account Serenity, we must start the story from four years ago when he was banned.

In early 2022, the American retail investor forum that claimed to be the largest casino on earth, r/wallstreetbets, banned an account named AleaBito.

The reason was that this account had posted about a stock with a name reminiscent of a pyramid scheme.

AXTI, valued a little over $200 million, primarily deals in indium phosphide substrates, and at that time its stock price was $12. The moderator deemed it was leading a trend and swiftly banned the account.

AXTI later soared to $70. Serenity himself reflected that this was his most legendary trade to date, with a single stock earning a floating profit of 1000%.

After being banned, he switched platforms, moving from Reddit to X, taking on a new name Serenity, meaning "peace" in Chinese.

A person kicked out of a forum chose such a name, leaving a note in his self-introduction: "That famous WSB trader is now on X."

He claims to have previously been an AI research scientist, a member of the RISC-V Foundation, published papers in Nature, and turned down Nvidia's offer to lead an AI team.

Research analysis has been cited by Reuters

Serenity's follower count has surged this year, with people in the US stock circle, Taiwanese stock circle, and European stock circle translating his posts. Chinese communities like moomoo, Xueqiu, and PTT each have groups following his trades.

Some have built dashboards to track his portfolio changes, while others manage hedge funds based on it. His paid product is merely an Excel sheet, which he jokingly calls "a $1 idea." All core research is publicly available on X for free.

The Consistent Winner

Calling for RPI is just one of many judgments by Serenity. He has a string of similar cases, each following the same trajectory: first he tweets, then faces criticism, and finally gets validated.

The first was AXTI—the stock that caused his banning from WSB.

Indium phosphide substrates are the foundational material for AI data center optical modules. In February 2025, Tokyo University imposed export controls on indium phosphide. By January 2026, the issuance of permits tightened further, forcing AXT to lower its revenue guidance for the season.

Overnight, this small factory in Fremont, California, transformed from a small-cap stock to a strategically important asset of national security. He had called this company out two years earlier.

The second case is SIVE, Sivers Semiconductors listed in Stockholm, Sweden, making CPO external light source continuous wave lasers, the core components of the next generation 1.6T co-packaged optics.

After publicly building his position, the first wave saw a single-day surge of 73.78%, with its market cap jumping from $130 million to $230 million instantly. On April 15, 2026, Jabil announced a partnership with SIVE to develop the 1.6T LRO optical module, achieving a 2.5 times efficiency advantage. A month later, $6.6 million from the CHIPS Act Year 2 arrived.

The third case is Soitec, a French semiconductor company that is nearly a monopoly player for CPO's SOI substrates, even Japanese Shin-Etsu has to obtain licenses from them.

This March, he clearly tweeted a change of view, building a position near €43, calling it "an invisible monopoly to hold for the long term." That day, Soitec's stock surged 16% in a single day.

There is also a string of Taiwanese stocks: FOCI (3363, micro-lens and fiber array), Wei-Mao (3105, gallium arsenide foundry), TSEM (Tower Semiconductor).

These stocks have long been discussed in local Taiwanese retail circles, but in the English-speaking world, he may be the first to systematically link them to the CPO narrative.

In terms of performance, he self-reported a 630% return during the year before joining X, and at one point this year, his YTD exceeded 500%, though it has recently pulled back some.

Of course, these numbers are not audited and can only be taken as references.

However, one thing has been verified. Reuters and Bloomberg directly quoted his online name in reports.

150,000 fans across three continents translating his posts, while hedge funds follow his work.

The Bottleneck Point

To understand Serenity's investment logic and what he did right, we must first grasp the mainstream narrative of Wall Street over the past three years.

From 2023 to 2026, retail investors worldwide have been chasing the same stocks: AI

Nvidia, AMD, Microsoft, Google, Meta.

Every sell-side report, every YouTube influencer, every financial headline calculates whether these companies can surpass expectations in the next quarter.

Serenity takes the opposite approach. He studies from the bottom up, layer by layer, searching for the "screws" present in Nvidia.

He coined a term for these elements: chokepoint.

This concept can be clarified with an analogy.

Indium phosphide substrates are to AI optical modules what the Strait of Hormuz is to global oil. 20% of the world's oil passes through that strait; whoever controls it controls everyone.

For a more everyday version, fine kaiseki cuisine in Tokyo's Ginza has the most expensive item on the bill as the tuna belly, but the truly indispensable element for the entire restaurant are the shiso leaves under the sashimi.

90% of Japan's premium shiso leaves come from a few family farms in Izu. After a typhoon, the farms close, causing all the kaiseki restaurants in Ginza to shut down that day.

A chokepoint is something of this nature. No one mentions it on normal days, but if trouble arises, everyone is in trouble.

Serenity’s work method is precisely the opposite of mainstream Wall Street analysts.

Sell-side analysts look down from large companies; he reverse-engineers from the chokepoints upwards. He draws supply chain maps, starting from Nvidia's H100 clusters, digging down to the deepest, narrowest points. He uses AI to challenge himself, often saying, "I let Gemini challenge my arguments," feeding research drafts to AI to play the opposing role.

He has created a complete global chokepoint map for the AI era using US, Taiwanese, European, and Japanese stocks.

Each node is a potential Strait of Hormuz. With every geopolitical event, every earnings report, every export control, he can find the corresponding coordinates on the map and then vote with his holdings.

Recently, he has extended his radar to rare earths and humanoid robots. The investment logic remains a continuation of the past, searching for narrow points, monopolies, and segments that could bring everyone down.

This is something most sell-side analysts on Wall Street cannot do. They have been siloed into departments, with tech media not looking at materials, materials not looking at optics, and optics not looking at geopolitics.

One of his most common phrases is, "My earliest opinions are generally the most heavily criticized."

Is He a Retail God or Another Mythologized Gambler?

As I write to this point, it's time to pivot the discussion.

Everything unverifiable about Serenity—his identity is entirely anonymous, with no photos, real name, or institutional background available for verification.

"Refusing a $6 Nvidia AI team offer," "Nature papers," "RISC-V Foundation member"—all are self-stated.

Performance claims are self-reported, with no audits and no third-party reconciliation. His holdings are highly concentrated, with most positions in small to mid-cap non-consensus stocks, which have poor liquidity. Retail investors can easily enter positions at the wrong times.

Among financial KOLs over the past decade, those with unverifiable identities, self-reported performance, and prevalent following cultures have generally not ended well.

However, there are a few aspects in which Serenity is different.

He currently does not sell courses, does not lead trading groups, does not conduct training, and does not charge high-priced subscriptions. Core research is publicly available on X for free. He does not take ads, does not drive traffic, and does not engage in MCNs.

For now, he cannot be considered a scammer but should not be treated as a god either.

Of course, an anonymous individual banned from a forum, who manages to get over 150,000 individuals, including Wall Street hedge funds, to work for him for free, validating his arguments, disseminating research, and translating posts, is certainly legendary.

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