Macroeconomics and Capital Market

• ETF continues to bleed: The U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF has recorded net redemptions for 13 consecutive days, with a total outflow of about $4.4 billion, and IBIT single product outflow accounting for about 75%; the Ethereum spot ETF has had net outflows for 7 consecutive weeks, with a recent outflow of $273 million.

• Market sentiment is extremely fearful: The cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 16, falling into the "extreme fear" range; the total market capitalization has shrunk to $2.01 trillion.

• Macroeconomic pressure intensifies: The latest U.S. PCE year-on-year increase reached 4.1%, higher than market expectations, leading to a further delay in interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve, putting pressure on risk assets.

Industry and Regulation

• Concerns about MicroStrategy monetization: The market is worried that MicroStrategy's (MSTR) Bitcoin monetization framework may turn it from a core buyer into a potential seller, leading to a continuous reduction in institutional exposure.

• Regulatory process slows down: The probability of the "Digital Asset Market Clarity Act" passing in 2026 has been reduced from 60% to 50%, delaying expectations for regulatory clarity.

• Mining profit is inverted: Bitcoin mining difficulty has increased by 7.15% to 1.3387 trillion, and the current coin price is below the estimated production cost of about $78,000 per coin.
II. Overall Market Assessment

The current market is in a mid-term bearish trend, with Bitcoin leading the decline, dragging the entire market weaker. The core contradiction is the continuous outflow of ETF funds and falling prices forming a negative feedback loop, combined with tightening macro liquidity, lacking reversal catalysts in the short term.

Overall Action Principle: Do not blindly bottom-fish; focus on high shorts during rebounds, strictly control positions, and set stop losses.

III. BTC Market Analysis and Strategy
Current Condition
Bitcoin has fallen below the $58,000 mark, with a cumulative decline of over 30% since 2026. The daily chart maintains a bearish pattern, with descending highs (65,600→63,200→61,800→60,800), and the rebound strength has progressively weakened.

Key Levels
Strong Resistance: $59,900–$60,200, previous support turned resistance, high volatility zone
Secondary Resistance: $61,800, downtrend line pressure
First Support: $58,000, key psychological level for the day
Strong Support: $56,000, market maker hedging accumulation zone
Extreme Target: Below $50,000, market predicts a 57% probability of breaking below year-end

1. Short on Rebound (Priority Strategy)
◦ Entry: Enter after rebound to $59,900–$60,000 zone encounters resistance
◦ Stop Loss: Above $60,300
◦ Target: $58,000, if broken look for $56,000

2. Follow through on Break
◦ If the 1-hour level effectively breaks below $58,000, a light short position can be followed with a target of $56,000
3. Cautious Long
◦ Avoid bottom fishing in the $58,000–$56,000 zone, as this is the market maker's hedging position rather than retail buying support; stabilization signals need to wait for ETF fund inflow confirmation

IV. ETH Market Analysis and Strategy
Ethereum is in a clear downward channel, with the ETH/BTC exchange rate hitting a new low since the beginning of 2023, consistently weakening relative to Bitcoin. The daily RSI is near 33, indicating a technical rebound demand due to overselling, but trading volume has shrunk, limiting rebound height.

Key Levels
Strong Resistance: $1,630–$1,660, concentrated closing positions area
Break-even Point: $1,700, stabilization needed to reverse the short-term downtrend
First Support: $1,548–$1,560, area of dense trading during the day
Strong Support: $1,500, round number, near previous lows
Breakdown Target: $1,412, technical estimation for downward target

1. Main Strategy: Short on Rebound
◦ Entry: Enter after pressure in $1,630–$1,650 zone
◦ Stop Loss: Above $1,700
◦ Target: $1,550–$1,530, if broken look for $1,500

2. Auxiliary Strategy: Light Position for Rebound
◦ Light position trial long only when clear stop-loss signal at $1,510–$1,530
◦ Stop Loss: Below $1,470
◦ Target: $1,580–$1,600, quick entry and exit, do not hold long
3. Mid-term Observation: Avoid mid-term bottom-fishing layout until stabilizing above $1,700, need to wait for improvements in ETF fund flow confirmation

V. SOL Market Analysis and Strategy
SOL has dropped about 76% from its historical highs, positioned below all major moving averages. RSI around 26 indicates a severe oversold state; the on-chain TVL has reached an all-time high, providing fundamental support, but institutional demand has significantly weakened, and speculative activity has decreased.

Key Levels
Core Resistance: Near $78, position of the 50-day moving average, break-even point
Secondary Resistance: $86–$89, 30-day moving average, structural strength after breaking
First Support: $70, daily bullish defense level
Strong Support: $65–$68, on-chain concentrated holding cost zone
Breakdown Target: $60–$62, key psychological support

1. Range Trading Idea
◦ Bearish view under $78; short on rebound to $75–$77, stop loss above $80, target $70–$68
◦ Stabilization on retreat to $66–$68 can try for a light long, stop loss below $63, target $73–$75

2. Follow through on Breakthrough
◦ If it breaks above $78 with volume and stabilizes, follow long with a target of $86–$89
◦ If effectively breaks below $65, opens downward space, avoid or follow suit with shorts

3. Risk Warning: SOL's volatility is greater than mainstream coins; current liquidity is diminishing, positions should be lighter than BTC, ETH, and strict stop loss.
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