Will there be a market in the next six months? | Q&A

CN
21 days ago

1. What kind of scene is left after the towering waves? It's clear without needing to imagine.

This is a comment from a reader at the end of an article on October 8.

In this article, I discussed the measures that the country might implement to boost the market.

This comment likely serves as a prediction of the potential outcomes following the introduction of such measures.

In recent days, as the date of the U.S. presidential election approaches, the possibility of Trump returning to power has increasingly gained attention from various parties.

According to the latest rumors from Bloomberg, if Trump comes to power, our country may introduce stimulus measures several times greater than those after the 2008 financial crisis.

Considering various pieces of information, this rumor is probably not unfounded.

Since what we ordinary people will face next is a "great flood," what we must do is to actively confront and prepare for it, finding ways to utilize this condition.

As for what the final outcomes of these measures will be, our concerns may not have much effect.

This society is quite cruel; in the face of such major events, it is already commendable for ordinary people to avoid being swept away and consumed by the times.

2. There shouldn't be any major market movements in the next six months; the biggest risk in the crypto space is the lack of a decent application.

Since the beginning of this year, the biggest "application" in the entire crypto ecosystem is probably the various MEME coins.

MEME coins have emerged endlessly with new tricks, the latest being GOAT, which even incorporates AI. Of course, I am very supportive and attentive to the inclusion of AI. But if the entire ecosystem is just MEME, then it becomes too dull.

I really don't believe that MEME coins alone can lead to a decent bull market.

The internal environment is not ideal, and the external environment is equally pessimistic.

I hold a cautious attitude towards how much the upcoming interest rate cuts can benefit the crypto ecosystem.

Aside from that, I think there is only one other factor that could directly benefit the entire crypto ecosystem: the U.S. government is brewing the "Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act."

However, this act is still in the queue and has not been truly discussed or voted on, let alone executed.

I estimate that formal discussions and voting on this act will not happen until after the November elections at the earliest. If Trump is elected at that time, the likelihood of the act passing may increase, providing a boost to Bitcoin and the entire crypto ecosystem.

However, if the passage of this act merely brings traffic to the crypto ecosystem or even sparks a bull market, I believe such a bull market would still be very forced and difficult to sustain.

3. I find it strange that Lin Yuan, as a top investor, is promoting and shouting on Douyin and WeChat, calling retail investors to enter the market. The market always follows the 80/20 rule; at this time, a large number of retail investors are entering the market crazily, while those who are slightly cautious would not enter at this time. Is his call to action driven by personal motives?

In August, there was a lot of buzz on video platforms about a recent video of Lin Yuan, which was his sharing at an investment conference at Tsinghua University in August.

The main content of his sharing was that the upcoming market is a rare opportunity for this generation of young people, and he also mentioned that it might be his last great opportunity in this lifetime.

From the perspective of the investment market, I completely agree with his viewpoint. I am preparing in the same way.

However, from the perspective of an investor, I strongly disagree with his viewpoint. The reason I have mentioned in several previous articles: if one does not genuinely understand the market, no matter how great the opportunity, it is not an opportunity; instead, it could be a pit, a huge pit. Therefore, casually preaching investment opportunities to an investor who lacks understanding of the market can often harm them.

In my daily life, I rarely discuss investments with friends, whether it’s crypto assets or U.S. stocks or A-shares; I hardly talk about it.

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