The United States will hold its presidential election on November 5, and the election situation in swing states is difficult to predict, increasing market instability and prompting investors to turn to cryptocurrencies and gold as safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, since October of last year, conflicts have arisen in the Middle East, with Israel clashing with surrounding organizations or countries such as Hamas, Iraq, and Lebanon, while the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia has yet to end. Against the backdrop of regional wars escalating towards internationalization, the safe-haven value of cryptocurrencies and gold is gradually increasing.

The expectation of interest rate cuts in November has also driven the rise of cryptocurrencies and gold as safe-haven assets, with the market predicting a 99% chance of a 25 basis point cut in November and a 1% chance of no cut. Since cryptocurrencies and gold do not yield interest, a rate cut will lower the cost of holding safe-haven assets, thus enhancing their appeal to investors.

In terms of cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin has seen its price fluctuate downward since reaching a historical high of $73,880 in March of this year, dipping to nearly $48,000 at one point. However, as the Federal Reserve begins to cut rates, the U.S. election day approaches, and investor optimism about a general rise in October drives Bitcoin's price to break through $72,500 around midnight today, reaching a high of $73,660 at 3 AM, just under $250 away from its historical high! However, selling pressure emerged afterward, and as of the time of writing, the price is quoted at $72,245, with a 24-hour increase narrowing to 3.6%.

Bitcoin 4-Hour Chart

First, according to the Bollinger Bands indicator on the 4H Bitcoin chart, the current price has clearly broken through the upper Bollinger Band and extended upward, indicating that the market is in an overbought state, which generally comes with certain retracement pressure. The distance between the upper and lower Bollinger Bands has significantly widened, indicating increased volatility, and the market may continue to maintain strong fluctuations.

Second, based on the KDJ indicator on the 4H Bitcoin chart, the K-line and D-line values are flattening at high levels, while the J-line value is in the high overbought area, indicating a certain demand for retracement in the market. Additionally, the three KDJ lines are forming a death cross signal at high levels, further confirming the possibility of a short-term retracement.

Finally, according to the MACD indicator on the 4H Bitcoin chart, both the DIF line and DEA line are operating above the 0 axis, and the MACD red histogram is gradually shortening, indicating that the upward momentum is gradually weakening. If the DIF line crosses below the DEA line to form a death cross signal, and the MACD red histogram continues to shorten or turns from red to green, it may indicate that the trend will enter a retracement phase.

Bitcoin 1-Hour Chart

First, according to the Bollinger Bands indicator on the 1H Bitcoin chart, the price is operating near the upper Bollinger Band and has repeatedly broken through the upper band, indicating that the market is in an overbought state. Although the current price has slightly retreated, it is still operating above the middle band. The distance between the upper and lower Bollinger Bands is large, indicating increased volatility, and a retracement may occur in the short term.

Second, based on the KDJ indicator on the 1H Bitcoin chart, the K-line and D-line values have retreated from the overbought area and show signs of crossing around 50. If the K-line value crosses below the D-line value to form a death cross signal, it will increase the likelihood of a retracement.

Finally, according to the MACD indicator on the 1H Bitcoin chart, the DIF line and DEA line are operating above the 0 axis, but the MACD red histogram has started to shorten, indicating that the upward momentum has weakened. If the DIF line crosses below the DEA line to form a death cross pattern, it will further confirm the retracement signal.

In summary, the current market is in a high overbought area, and various indicators show strong retracement signals. In the short term, Bitcoin faces certain retracement pressure, but the overall trend remains strong.

Based on the above, the following suggestions are provided for reference:

Buy Bitcoin on a retracement to 71,300-71,500, with a target of 73,300-73,500. If it breaks, look at 73,900, with a stop loss at 71,000.

Giving you a 100% accurate suggestion is not as good as providing you with the right mindset and trend. After all, teaching someone to fish is better than giving them fish; suggestions may earn you a moment, but learning the mindset will earn you a lifetime! The focus is on the mindset, grasping the trend, and planning the market layout and positions. What I can do is use my practical experience to help everyone, guiding your investment decisions and management in the right direction.

Writing time: (2024-10-30, 19:20)

(Written by - Master Says Coin) Disclaimer: Online publication has delays, and the above suggestions are for reference only. The author is dedicated to research and analysis in the investment fields of Bitcoin, Ethereum, altcoins, forex, stocks, etc., having been involved in the financial market for many years and possessing rich practical operation experience. Investment carries risks; please proceed with caution. For more real-time market analysis, please follow the official account Master Says Coin for discussion and exchange.

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