Zhou Yanling: The 11.1 Crash is to Rebuild the Bottom for the Bull Market, Non-Farm Payrolls Tonight, Short First Then Long During the Day
When most people start to collectively turn bullish, risk arrives. Yesterday, the bears retaliated and wiped out all those chasing the long! The price of Bitcoin plummeted directly by 4000 points. What caused the drop in Bitcoin yesterday? Was it the negative impact of the September PCE price index? Or was it the negative impact of the initial jobless claims for the week? Did these trigger the plunge?
If yesterday's crash was due to the data, how do we explain that the previous September ADP employment data showed a significant unexpected increase but the market did not drop, instead it rose? In other words, if the data is negative and the price drops, it’s due to the data; if the data is negative and the price does not drop, it’s due to the trend. This explanation seems somewhat forced. The recent drop in Bitcoin was merely a trigger; the monthly closing saw bulls taking profits. Previously, the price surged directly from 52500 to above 73000, accumulating too many long positions that needed to exit.
Next, the October non-farm payroll data will be released tonight, and next week will see the U.S. presidential election and the Federal Reserve meeting, creating a pile of uncertainty and risk. A bird in hand is worth two in the bush; exiting is the best solution. Using results to infer causes seems to trace back to the source, but in reality, it is merely self-consistent, providing the market with a self-perceived reasonable explanation. Regarding tonight's non-farm data release, if the employment report and other economic indicators show a strong economy, it may lower market expectations for interest rate cuts, thus putting pressure on Bitcoin prices. Conversely, if the data is weak, it may enhance market bets on interest rate cuts, thereby supporting the price.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's daily chart has formed a "bearish engulfing" top signal. However, the price has accumulated over 10% in October, marking the third consecutive month of gains. Moreover, similar "engulfing" bearish top signals have appeared during previous significant price increases, yet the price continued to rise, repeatedly refreshing its attempts to reach historical highs. This time is the closest yet. Therefore, Yanling personally believes that this drop is unlikely to continue; the bull market is on the rise, and the crash is merely an interlude. Rapid declines also lead to rapid recoveries; this does not indicate a peak in price. We had previously predicted this pullback, and there isn’t much space left below to chase (short-term quick in and out can capture a bit). If you followed the bearish trend yesterday, you can focus on the 1-hour support area below today. After a short-term pullback stabilizes, you can seize the opportunity for a second long in the bull market. Specific points for operation are provided below for your reference.
11.1 Bitcoin Trading Strategy:
Short at 70600-70000, stop loss above 71000, target 68500-68000, continue to look for a breakdown near 67000.
Long at 67000-67500, stop loss below 66500, target 69000-69500, continue to look for a breakout near 70500.
11.1 Ethereum Trading Strategy:
Short at 2540-2510, stop loss above 2580, target 2465-2430-2390.
Long at 2400-2435, stop loss below 2370, target 2500-2530, continue to look for an upward move near 2600.
【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risk yourself. The article review and publication may have delays, and the strategies may not be timely. Specific operations should follow Yanling's real-time strategies.】
This article is exclusively shared by senior analyst Zhou Yanling (WeChat public account: Zhou Yanling). The author has been engaged in financial market investment research for over ten years, currently mainly analyzing and guiding BTC, ETH, DOT, DOGE, LTC, FIL, EOS, XRP, BCH, ETC, BSV, and other cryptocurrency contract/spot operations. For more real-time community guidance, consultation on unblocking positions, and learning market analysis skills, you can follow the teacher's public account: Zhou Yanling to find the teacher.
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