Bitcoin was supposed to reach new highs, but it has fallen below the 70k mark. Are you guys scared?
The global market experienced a "indiscriminate" sell-off on Thursday evening, affecting gold, the dollar, the U.S. stock market, U.S. Treasury bonds, and Bitcoin. The market behaved as expected, yet not as expected; what was expected was that BTC did indeed rise in October, but what was not expected was that the altcoins did not follow suit!
The pressure level for BTC to reach new highs is still significant. After failing to break through, it has entered a correction phase, with BTC leading the decline this morning, causing all spot assets to plummet.
Currently, the price of BTC is around 69,200, and ETH is around 2,500!
Bitcoin slightly corrected last night following the U.S. stock market, which was also within expectations:
Because with the upcoming elections, various events can lead to spikes or pullbacks, and there are too many long positions that need to be cleared out before a normal rise can occur.
Bitcoin is currently testing the support around 68,000. The market has been more cautious these past few days, waiting for the results of the U.S. elections, so short-term leveraged users should be aware of the risks. Our overall judgment of the market has not changed.
Just now, the statistics were released:
On October 29, STH sold 232,000 coins, LTH sold 15,000 coins;
On October 30, STH sold 251,000 coins, LTH sold 18,000 coins;
On October 31, STH sold 207,000 coins, LTH sold 11,000 coins;
It can be seen that:
From October 28 to October 30, the main selling pressure came from "short-term profit" chips, while on the 31st, the main selling pressure came from short-term "stuck chips";
The 29th and 30th were a process of accelerated distribution, including both LTH and STH. By the 31st, the selling pressure began to weaken.
In the coming days, we will continue to observe whether the data shows a sustained slowdown or accelerated distribution, which can serve as one of the short-term judgment criteria.
Currently, the average cost for STH is around 64,000. As long as this level is not broken, we believe the trend remains unchanged.
Are you panicking in the face of a declining market? Let's talk about strategy:
For altcoins (including Ethereum, which is considered trash), only buy them when Bitcoin shows a rising structure, or some altcoins can be bought after Bitcoin has completely broken new highs.
Only when Bitcoin breaks new highs and ETH leads can there be hope.
Don't rush, don't FOMO, or you'll be the one stuck:
Don't buy trash altcoins, don't buy those with no trading volume, don't go all in, and keep some positions! There are very few coins that can have independent market movements, and when you encounter coins with significant price increases, make sure to exit in time!
Keep your low-cost Bitcoin spot positions unchanged, don't have any coin-based futures positions, and if you don't understand contracts, don't trade them, and you won't lose money.
The spot market has basically not moved much; just continue to wait!
Why maintain the above strategy?
External Environment:
With the U.S. elections approaching, uncertainty in the financial markets is increasing, and it's evident that funds in the U.S. stock market are choosing to seek safety.
BTC is a stock in the U.S. stock market and is likely to follow its trends; altcoins are all "children" of BTC and are likely to follow BTC's trends; while MEME coins may have independent market movements and narratives.
As for when to exit BTC spot positions? My cost is at 51,000. As long as I know I'm above 51,000, I have the initiative. Having the initiative is enough; as for when to exit? I haven't figured that out yet.
At 20:30 tonight, non-farm payroll data will be released, with the previous value at 25.4 and the market generally predicting 11.3. If the data is below expectations, it may increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Tonight's data will have a short-term impact on market trends, so everyone should be aware of the risks.
In my personal view, Bitcoin breaking new highs is still certain; continuous pullbacks and rises are just fuel for contracts. Altcoin contracts should really be avoided, as the volatility is too large.
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