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When most people in the market start to collectively become bullish and go long on Bitcoin, risks often approach quietly. Yesterday, a short attack wiped out the funds chasing long positions, causing Bitcoin to plummet nearly 2500 points in a single day. What exactly caused this wave of decline? Was it the negative news from the September PCE price index, or the adverse impact of the initial jobless claims for the week, triggering a simultaneous drop in U.S. stocks, gold, and Bitcoin? In fact, this Bitcoin crash is just a prelude, reflecting more on the profit-taking of bulls as the monthly candle closes. This month, Bitcoin rose from 5.9 to 7.3, and despite experiencing multiple fluctuations along the way, a large amount of long profit positions accumulated, facing concentrated exit demands.
Next, with the release of the October non-farm payroll data tonight, along with next week's U.S. presidential election and Federal Reserve meeting, numerous uncertainties and risks are coming one after another. In this situation, it may be best to act cautiously; exiting the market might be the optimal choice, after all, having one bird in hand is better than two in the bush. My views and logic regarding the non-farm data market are as follows:
Difficult to sustain a crash: In a bull market, a crash is often just a brief interlude; typically, declines happen quickly and end just as fast. This wave of decline does not signal a peak for Bitcoin, so there is no need to rush into short positions.
Data sentiment is bullish: The U.S. October non-farm payroll data will be released at 20:30 tonight, with a previous value of 254,000 and an expectation of only 113,000, halving from last month. The pessimistic employment data expectations may create a bullish sentiment for Bitcoin, potentially supporting market sentiment.
Weakness makes it hard to enter: Yesterday's decline was a continuous downward trend with almost no rebound space, causing many who wanted to short to hesitate due to the lack of a rebound, fearing a failed bottom pick, ultimately leading to an accelerated decline in Bitcoin, breaking below the $70,000 mark.
Observe Asian and European market trends: Today, Bitcoin remains weak during the Asian and European trading sessions, with little rebound strength and continued downward testing. Before the data is released, it is advisable to first pay attention to the effectiveness of the support zone around 6.95-6.9 to see if it can provide support.
Summary: Today, I believe it is not advisable to chase short positions on Bitcoin. Although the Asian and European market trends remain weak, the cost-effectiveness of chasing shorts is not high. At least until the daily MA10 moving average (6.92) is broken, I do not recommend chasing shorts.
Afternoon trading strategy (written at 16:00):
BTC: Lightly position short near 7.05, targeting around 6.92; if the price dips to the 6.91-6.88 range, then lightly position long with a small stop loss, targeting a rise of about 1500 points.
ETH: Lightly position short in the 2540-2570 range, targeting 2480.
Note: Pay close attention to the short-term support around the 6.92-6.88 range. If it completely breaks below the daily MA10 (6.91), the downtrend may become established, and it would not be advisable to go long at that point. Additionally, tonight's non-farm data is worth watching; the market expectation is 114,000, and if the actual number exceeds expectations, it may have a bearish impact on Bitcoin.
This is the thought process for Bitcoin and Ethereum today. If any friends are stuck in positions, feel free to reach out to the Coin Victory Group, and I will help you resolve the issues.
This article is independently written by the Coin Victory Group. Friends in need of current price strategies and position resolution can find the Coin Victory Group online. Recently, the market has been primarily characterized by fluctuations, accompanied by intermittent spikes, so when making trades, please remember to control your take profit and stop loss. In the future, when facing major market data, the Coin Victory Group will also organize live broadcasts across the internet. If you wish to watch, you can find the Coin Victory Group online and contact me for the link.
Mainly focused on spot and contract trading, BTC/ETH/ETC/LTC/EOS/BSV/ATOM/XRP/BCH/LINK/TRX/DOT, specializing in strategies that revolve around high and low support and resistance for short-term fluctuations, medium to long-term trend positions, daily extreme pullbacks, weekly K-top predictions, and monthly head predictions.
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