Master Discusses Hot Topics:

First, let's talk about last night's non-farm payroll data. Although it didn't reach the negative levels estimated by Bloomberg, the addition of 12,000 jobs still didn't surprise me. My understanding is as follows:

The addition of 12,000 jobs seems a bit precarious, but Bloomberg's estimates were exaggerated, and the market was already prepared. The super strong hurricane and Boeing's strike are unusual factors that mean the October data is not reflecting an economic collapse; instead, it makes everyone feel more optimistic about interest rate cuts.

With a 4.1% unemployment rate and a 0.4% month-on-month increase in hourly wages, it’s a solid sense of happiness, alleviating fears of recession. The October manufacturing PMI also exceeded expectations, indicating that the American economy still has some unreal resilience.

The absurdly low job additions, the expected unemployment rate, combined with a manufacturing PMI above expectations, create a combination that not only dispels the shadow of recession but also brings about fantasies of interest rate cuts.

Additionally, this data may calm market anxieties about a Trump victory, with the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields struggling at resistance levels. Market attention will shift from the election back to the economy and inflation, but the final election result is the truth that will determine future policies and market directions.

Ultimately, what I summarize is that the Federal Reserve's data is basically not meant to be taken literally; rather, it serves as a signal, like a code for various capital groups.

Moreover, this non-farm employment data is likely to be significantly revised downwards, just as I mentioned in my short message analysis the day before yesterday; it really seems like they don't even want to pretend anymore.

As for my medium to long-term thoughts on Bitcoin and Ethereum, I have already analyzed them in the previous two articles. Regarding the U.S. election, regardless of who comes to power, the impact on the crypto market is limited. And as the election approaches, it is also a time for capital flight.

This means that a large amount of capital will flee from the U.S. stock market, which will indirectly lead to a collapse of the U.S. stock market. If the Nasdaq plunges, just imagine what kind of repercussions Bitcoin will face? When the dollar index is favorable, it will undoubtedly affect Bitcoin.

If you are worried that the bull market is over, then I want to tell you that the transition between bull and bear cycles has always been a market rule; everything has its rhythm, and the financial market is especially so.

We are currently in the latter half of a bull market, so rather than worrying about whether the bull market will disappear, why not learn to think about whether you can seize the opportunity to make money in this bull market???

Master Looks at Trends:

Although Bitcoin expanded its upward momentum yesterday and seemed to be rebounding, due to last night's favorable non-farm data and the dollar index diving, Bitcoin's rise was too slow after the announcement, leading to a significant drop.

Since it has reached a peak, it can be seen as profit-taking selling, but institutional investors' demand is still increasing, so at this time, a short-term rebound viewpoint can be maintained.

Resistance Levels Reference:

First Resistance Level: 70500

Second Resistance Level: 70000

Support Levels Reference:

First Support Level: 69200

Second Support Level: 68800

Looking back at yesterday, I had previously set a long position around 68800, with targets of 69600 to 70100 all reached. The short position set between 71500 and 71800, with targets of 70100 to 69600, has also been fully realized.

Today's Trading Suggestions:

Today's trading can maintain a short-term rebound viewpoint and adopt a conservative strategy in trading. There were many sideways movements over the weekend, so do not easily enter unclear ranges; try to adopt a more observational trading strategy.

11.2 Master’s Swing Trading Orders:

I won't set any orders today; just play around within the range of 69200 to 70000. If you have any questions, feel free to message me. Once again, remember to strictly set your take profit and stop loss.

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