Zhou Yanling: The Upcoming Election and Interest Rate Decision on November 3rd - Where Will the Crypto Market Go?
With just two days left until the U.S. election, the "Trump trade" sentiment has taken a sharp downturn, leading to a significant drop in the stock of Trump's social media company, severely reducing his net worth. Over three trading days, the stock plummeted more than 40%, with a market value evaporating by over $4 billion. As the biggest indicator of the Trump trade, the sharp decline in DJT stock price signifies a 180-degree reversal in market pricing—from betting on Trump to betting on Harris.
Currently, it is too early to draw conclusions about who will come out on top. In terms of the crypto market, a short-term victory for Trump may pose greater policy risks, which could be favorable for the crypto market; whereas a Harris victory would imply lower policy risks, reducing the short-term hedging factors for the crypto market. This explains why, despite positive non-farm payroll data on Friday, the crypto prices still experienced a pullback after an initial rise.
Additionally, from a long-term perspective, before the election, Trump's stance is bullish for Bitcoin while Harris's is bearish; however, post-election, their impacts on Bitcoin will be the opposite. Trump may ease regional conflicts but could elevate economic trade risks due to hedging, while Harris would do the opposite, facing similar issues such as deficits, inflation, and U.S. debt. Therefore, while these news events may have a significant short-term impact on crypto prices, both scenarios have the potential to stimulate future price increases in the long run.
Finally, looking at the recent specific trends of Bitcoin: in terms of trend, neither Friday's non-farm payrolls nor next Tuesday's presidential election or next Thursday's Federal Reserve interest rate decision are likely to change the overall direction of Bitcoin's movement; the impact of news is significant, and the market reacts quickly, digesting information rapidly. Thus, after some time, it will continue to return to its overall operational rhythm.
This week, the weekly chart closed with a doji candlestick pattern. In a trending market, a smaller doji indicates a stronger signal for continued upward movement; however, the upper shadow of this week's doji is relatively long. From the perspective of the recent weekly price increase, a steeper overall trend indicates greater instability ahead, suggesting a need for a pullback. Additionally, on the daily chart, there were two consecutive bearish candles on Thursday and Friday, with prices operating below the trend indicators MA5 and MA10, which poses some risk for continued strong momentum in the technical formation of prices next week, indicating a short-term need for a pullback. Moreover, the upward momentum on the 4-hour chart is also diminishing, so caution is advised regarding the extent of any pullbacks in short-term operations.
November 3rd Bitcoin Trading Strategy:
Short at 69700-69100, stop loss above 70300, target 67000-66400, continue to look for a decline towards around 65600.
Long at 66500-67100, stop loss below 66000, target 68000-68500.
November 3rd Ethereum Trading Strategy:
Short at 2520-2480, stop loss above 2560, target 2420-2380, continue to look for a decline towards around 2310.
Long at 2320-2360, stop loss below 2280, target 2420-2460.
[The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks yourself. The article's review and publication may have delays, and the strategies may not be timely. Specific operations should follow Yanling's real-time strategies.]
This article is exclusively shared by senior analyst Zhou Yanling (WeChat public account: Zhou Yanling). The author has over ten years of experience in financial market investment research, currently focusing on analyzing and guiding BTC, ETH, DOT, DOGE, LTC, FIL, EOS, XRP, BCH, ETC, BSV, and other crypto contracts/spot operations. For more real-time community guidance, consultation on breaking even, and learning trading skills, you can follow the teacher's public account: Zhou Yanling to find the teacher.
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