Master's Discussion on Hot Topics:

Today is also a historic day, as the U.S. election enters its final voting phase. However, many friends see the percentage of votes and shout "this is stable here, that is stable there," but celebrating after only 5% of the votes are counted is indeed overly optimistic.

It's important to know that the counting of votes in the U.S. is aggregated county by county, and the order varies by state: some states count mail-in ballots first, some count them later, some report results from large cities (blue), while others report from rural areas (red). Therefore, the initial "lead" or "lag" is actually meaningless; one must first understand what type of votes are being counted.

So, it’s crucial to closely monitor the situation; just looking at the numbers is not enough; in-depth analysis is required. For example, in the swing state of Wisconsin, if you are a Democratic supporter, don’t be too happy just because Harris is leading.

You need to check whether the counted votes mainly come from large cities (blue areas). If Harris is leading 55% to 45% in Milwaukee, don’t rush to celebrate. In 2020, Biden led here 60:40, so such a lead might actually indicate instability.

Similarly, if Harris is temporarily trailing in North Carolina, don’t be pessimistic. Look at Charlotte (deep blue), which has only counted 6%, indicating that blue votes have not fully come in. To understand the situation, one must first grasp the rules. Otherwise, it’s just wild guessing; it’s better to wait for the final results.

A few days ago, the market was buzzing about who would win and the potential impact on the market, but now it has become surprisingly quiet. Everyone is holding their breath, seemingly afraid that saying too much might invoke Murphy's Law.

If you are in the crypto space but do not understand the tricks of capital, or are unclear about how your wealth accumulates or dissipates, you will ultimately have to passively accept the arrangements of fate. While the election results are certainly worth paying attention to, they do not have a substantial impact on the Master's trading decisions.

The Master focuses more on long-term trends and technicals, which is more important than simply waiting for external news and letting others dictate your fate.

Perhaps we will know the election results in the next couple of days, but this is not the end. The real conclusion still requires confirmation from the House of Representatives, and we may even have to wait for a new round of interest rate meetings.

If you can only act when all risks have disappeared, then market opportunities will be out of reach for you. This traditional trading method of being constantly swayed by external factors and passively waiting for opportunities often leads to futility. If the market rises, the opportunity may have quietly vanished.

The real truth is: the external environment cannot be changed; the only thing that can be changed is oneself. By continuously improving one’s understanding, one can learn to comprehend market cycles and the actions of major players.

After rational analysis, the Master believes that Bitcoin is just a small part of the risk market in the U.S., barely making an appearance through ETFs. Compared to U.S. stocks and bonds, it still has a long way to go. The policy expectations surrounding the presidential election are the major factors influencing the market, relating to the overall direction of the U.S. economy.

It’s not that Trump is bad, but based on current policies, expenditures on defense, infrastructure, immigration, and taxes could increase the deficit by $7.5 trillion over the next decade, which is not good for the dollar, U.S. bonds, or inflation. This could lead to greater economic turbulence.

Even if Bitcoin occasionally spikes or breaks new highs (which is not important), it still needs to remain correlated with U.S. stocks; if U.S. stocks fall, Bitcoin will also struggle to rise independently.

Thus, we focus on the U.S. economy because we fear black swans or recessions. Ultimately, the policies between the two parties are also of equal weight in terms of economic development; it’s still the old saying: trade well when it’s time to trade, and take your time when it’s time to observe.

Master's Trend Analysis:

Yesterday, the Master placed a short position in the range of 70500 to 70800. At midnight, the price peaked around 70500, then continued to drop, reaching a low of around 68668. The first target of 69000 has been achieved, netting 1500 points.

A strong long position was also placed near 71800, and the market responded as expected, continuing to rally, reaching above 75600 this morning.

Bitcoin rebounded significantly due to the increased probability of Trump being elected, entering an adjustment phase after hitting a historical high of 75.6k. It has now broken through the previous high of 73.8k, showing an upward trend. Currently, only psychological resistance levels need to be monitored, and key support levels should also be noted.

Resistance Levels:

First Resistance Level: 74500

Second Resistance Level: 75400

Support Levels:

First Support Level: 73200

Second Support Level: 71800

Today's Trading Advice:

After reaching a new high, one can pay attention to whether the price will consolidate within a certain range and confirm the support level before taking action. Typically, after a new high, short-term adjustments are likely, so chasing long positions is not recommended. Even if you miss a momentary opportunity, it is advisable to patiently wait for a better entry point.

11.6 Master's Segment Strategy:

No segment trading today, no pre-positioning.

This article is exclusively planned and published by Master Chen (public account: Coin God Master Chen), with the same name across the internet. For more real-time investment strategies, solutions, spot trading, short, medium, and long-term contract trading techniques, operational skills, and knowledge about candlesticks, you can join Master Chen for learning and communication. A free experience group for fans and community live broadcasts are now available!

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