Congratulations to Trump on officially being elected as the President of the United States.
He is also the first U.S. president to openly support Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. BTC is about to embark on a journey to the stars and the sea.
The voting for the U.S. election has gradually come to an end, and the results are now being counted. At this moment, I am very excited because with Pennsylvania turning red, Trump's presidency is basically a done deal. No matter what tricks the Democrats have up their sleeves, it will be hard to stop Trump from entering the White House (unless there is an assassination).
Secondary market trends for the U.S. election:
Today, we continue to focus on the U.S. election. The secondary market for Bitcoin has already started since last night and has successfully broken through to a new high. It seems like someone knew the answer in advance.
Bitcoin's independent market, meme's independent market:
Without a doubt, the strongest is BTC. Trump's speech at the Bitcoin conference gave the market confidence in BTC, and now that he has won, both institutions and ordinary users will go on a buying spree.
Next is DOGE, which has a very strong connection to Musk, especially after this round of support for Trump, it will be even more directly linked. I estimate that there will be payment options on X in the future, so it is a long-term positive for DOGE.
Besides these two, there are also some on-chain memes, such as:
Mage Trump Pnut dmaga, with a special emphasis on Pnut. The little squirrel has somewhat assisted Trump in the election, so with Trump's victory, it will become a strong narrative meme in the future.
Finally, let's go! The bull market is starting, and the fluctuations in the chain will be even crazier.
What will the subsequent market trends look like?
Let's review the BTC market trends. Starting in November, Trump's winning probability began to decline, while Harris's winning probability started to rise, which was followed by a decline in Bitcoin prices from their peak.
From this set of data, we conclude:
When Trump's winning probability is high, it is positive for the crypto market, and Bitcoin prices rise.
When Harris's winning probability is high, it is negative for the crypto market, and Bitcoin prices fall.
This reflects market sentiment. Of course, I don't understand politics, nor do I know the situation in the U.S. I also believe that politics is dark, even darker than the financial market, and we cannot know the dark maneuvers within it. But I understand trading and market sentiment, which can truly help our trading strategies.
From historical data, after each election, the risk market tends to continue rising for about three months. I believe this time will be no exception, especially since there will be the "presidential" promise, so I think there may be some short-term fluctuations, but Trump's election will lead to better expectations.
First, we need to understand why Bitcoin prices rise when Trump's winning probability increases.
This is because Trump promised many crypto-friendly policies while campaigning, aligning himself with crypto users. Therefore, the market believes that Trump's election will bring new support to the crypto market, driving up coin prices.
The current market's positive sentiment regarding Trump's presidency is mainly emotional, and from the perspective of presidential winning probabilities, the market has already preemptively priced in Trump's victory.
From this perspective, I believe:
After Trump's victory, it will first release the emotional sentiment of the crypto market, driving prices to surge in the short term, but the sustainability will not be strong (after all, it is driven by emotion). Subsequently, early investors will start to take profits, leading to a price decline and a fading of sentiment, followed by a period of adjustment as the market waits to choose a new direction. (This can be referenced with the BTC ETF during that time.)
What else is worth looking forward to after the election?
The election is just one factor in the cycle, and not even the most important one. In terms of trends and cycles, we can foresee:
A. The impact of the BTC halving cycle, which often occurs within the election timeframe.
B. FASB will officially take effect in December 2024.
C. SAB121 will inevitably be resubmitted in 2025, and this time the approval rate will be very high.
D. More importantly, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has shifted from tightening to easing.
These are all events that will occur in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025. Even the monetary policy itself is a continuous factor; a loose monetary policy will continuously enhance investors' risk appetite, greatly aiding liquidity in the market.
We are heading towards an unprecedented bull market, a luxurious bull market with Trump + Musk supporting crypto, and CZ's return. We will meet at the peak!
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