The U.S. election has concluded, and Trump has achieved an absolute victory, becoming the 47th President of the United States. Following Trump's election win, the dollar, stock market, and cryptocurrency market have all risen, with the Dow Jones up 3.57%, the S&P 500 up 2.5%, and the Nasdaq up 2.9%, all reaching historic highs.
Bitcoin hits new highs, all lines surge; is the long-awaited altcoin season finally here?
Sister Haha is no longer laughing, and the bears are crying. After experiencing an 8-month correction, the market has finally reached new highs. Many people may have lost confidence during this time, and there are definitely quite a few who were washed out early.
Don't sleep anymore; if you do, the bull will run away. It's time to take off, fully take off. Congratulations to Bitcoin for breaking through its historical high; it's our turn to celebrate.
But the question arises, how should we look at the market next?
- Today, ETH broke through the 2820 resistance level, and the DEFI sector has also surged across the board, with funds flowing from BTC to ETH, causing BTC dominance to plummet.
2. ETH/BTC has begun to stabilize, which is a trend change of significant importance. It may end the three-year decline in the exchange rate and usher in a strong period for ETH.
- The market's focus has shifted from inscriptions to MEME, and now it has arrived at DEFI.
4. Since ETH has broken through 2820, I will no longer be bearish on the market. I have already bought some ETH, but there is still the possibility of a false breakout. If the weekly candlestick closes with a solid breakout, I will go all in on ETH and DEFI.
As for Bitcoin:
After reaching a historic high, many people are looking for a correction to short. Today, they probably should have sold. However, a correction should still occur, and we need to patiently wait for opportunities. Due to the favorable conditions of Trump taking office, Bitcoin's performance should be good in the short term.
I believe the favorable conditions after Trump's inauguration will continue to ferment. Analyzing the charts has lost its significance. The focus should be on the cycles; if Q4 achieves 100k+, then we can consider taking some profits and wait for a pullback to continue buying and holding.
So, is the next phase a new bull market or have we already peaked?
Undoubtedly, it cannot peak right now. I personally believe it is a new phase: If this momentum continues, there will likely be two more interest rate cuts this year, and reaching 85,000 before the end of the year is very possible.
It is important to know that even with Trump in office, cryptocurrency is not the top priority for the Republican Party. There are too many high-priority issues, such as military spending and healthcare, that will take precedence over cryptocurrency. Therefore, it would be good if cryptocurrency-related topics can be addressed by the second quarter of 2025, and expectations can be extended further.
As long as there is no economic recession or black swan events, the fourth quarter of 2024 should be the most stable. Then, from Christmas to January 20, there may be some fluctuations, and after the inauguration on January 10, there is a high possibility of another wave of favorable news.
Moreover, from a historical cycle perspective, significant declines typically begin to stabilize about six months after a halving. However, this does not mean that a bull market guarantees profits. Why? Everyone's approach and understanding are different, and more institutional players will continue to enter the market, which may pose more challenges for small retail investors like us.
Overall, the risk before the second quarter of 2025 is relatively low. The key focus should still be on U.S. monetary policy, whether the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates, the trend of unemployment rates, and whether inflation will fluctuate.
In terms of altcoins, I see SOL, DOGE, APT, and SUI. I believe the rise of the MOVE sector is inevitable, and the altcoin market has been activated, with capital effects on the rise! Once stabilized, we can go all out, and certainty will increase. Let's look forward to a wave of market activity!
The trading logic mainly focuses on quality MEME and quality DEFI. I have repeatedly shared a logic: once mainstream capital and institutions enter the market, besides BTC and ETH, they will definitely consider quality altcoins with infrastructure.
After Bitcoin breaks new highs, altcoins will take off. This is what I said before; yesterday all altcoins were rallying. If you didn't play contracts and weren't liquidated, you should have made some profit.
The next two months are what we call the crazy mode; we must cherish it.
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In the crypto industry, if you want to seize the next bull market opportunity, you need to have a quality circle. Everyone can band together for warmth and maintain insight. If you are alone, looking around and finding no one, it is actually very difficult to persist in this industry.
If you want to band together for warmth or have questions, feel free to join us—WeChat Official Account: You Bi Zhi Qing Nian.
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