During the online discussion over the weekend, many readers asked about the potential of ORDI.
My assessment of ORDI's potential is divided into short-term and long-term dimensions.
In terms of the short term, which refers to this cycle (from now until next year), I believe ORDI still has room for growth.
As long as Bitcoin continues to rise and maintains this momentum into next year, the new assets that have emerged within its ecosystem during this cycle (including leading inscriptions, NFTs, etc.) are likely to experience asset rotation. At that time, ORDI is expected to perform well, but predicting how high it can rise is uncertain.
Previously, I mentioned in an article that ORDI can be seen as a leverage of Bitcoin.
From the current data (https://www.coingecko.com/), in the past 7 days, Bitcoin has risen by about 15%, while ORDI has risen by 22%, slightly higher than Bitcoin, but the leverage effect is not significant. I believe that when sector rotation occurs in the future, triggering FOMO sentiment, the leverage effect will become more apparent.
However, from a long-term perspective, the potential of ORDI heavily depends on the development of the Bitcoin ecosystem.
If Bitcoin relies solely on the concept of "digital gold," its own room for growth is limited, and ORDI's growth potential will also be constrained. If Bitcoin can develop an application ecosystem and become an application platform, its growth potential will greatly expand, and ORDI's potential will also significantly increase.
To illustrate the relationship between Bitcoin and ORDI, I used the example of the development of the art market in our country during the online discussion.
From the 1950s until the 1990s, our country's economy was in a prolonged state of stagnation, and during that time, our art market (including ceramics, calligraphy, paintings, etc.) was also in a long-term price trough, with a significant disparity compared to the art markets of developed countries.
After the 1990s, with the rapid growth of our economy, the prices of our artworks began to soar, with many sectors rising as much as real estate, gradually catching up with internationally renowned art categories in terms of price.
The fundamental reason lies in economic development. After economic prosperity, artworks and collectibles naturally attract a portion of capital outflow, benefiting from it.
Similarly, in the Bitcoin ecosystem, assets like ORDI are equivalent to historically valuable artworks or collectibles within this ecosystem.
Therefore, the long-term potential of ORDI depends on the long-term potential of the Bitcoin ecosystem.
From the recent development of the Bitcoin ecosystem, although I still hold some hope for the application development of the Bitcoin ecosystem, my concerns are also increasing day by day. The competition within the ecosystem is fierce, and there won't be much time left for the development of Bitcoin's application ecosystem. If the precious time window is missed, even if the infrastructure of the Bitcoin ecosystem is ready, developers may not focus their main efforts on the Bitcoin platform.
Therefore, from now until next year, if the Bitcoin ecosystem still fails to develop its own innovative applications, the development of Bitcoin's applications may be in jeopardy.
Based on this judgment, I will still hold onto ORDI and other assets within the Bitcoin ecosystem. However, at some point next year, when the price of Bitcoin reaches a certain height, regardless of whether I consider selling my Bitcoin at that time, I may very well sell my ORDI and a number of assets within the Bitcoin ecosystem, ultimately retaining only Bitcoin and a few NFTs that I particularly like within the Bitcoin ecosystem.
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