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The short-term market for Bitcoin has once again surprised everyone, with a continuous rise without any pullbacks, ultimately reaching 89940, pulling up 8000 USD within 24 hours, feeling like a frenzy. After several days of uninterrupted upward movement, we finally welcomed a small acceleration in the upward trend, and the bears are basically almost wiped out. Last night while I was browsing Binance Square, many large holders faced liquidation of their short positions, one large holder had been holding a short position above 71000, with a liquidation price around 82500, resulting in a loss of 100,000 USD. This shows that this wave of increase has been quite decisive.

Back in October last year, I personally experienced this as well. At that time, I held a short position at 28000 without a stop-loss near 30000, and ultimately had to take a significant loss around 35000. Later, I learned my lesson; in contract trading, even if your liquidation price is far away, without a stop-loss plan, it ultimately leads to a dead end. Don’t think that because I have a light position and my liquidation price is far, I can hold the contract without worry. Last year, my short position at 28000 had a liquidation price above 48000; was it safe? Not at all. Holding until the end would definitely lead to liquidation, and fortunately, I decisively took the loss at that time.

I digressed a bit; I actually wanted to share my personal experience to tell everyone that having a stop-loss in contract trading is a rule that must be followed, otherwise, you will eventually lose everything. Because the market itself has both predictable and unpredictable states, this means you should allow yourself to occasionally misjudge the direction. Misjudging the market is as normal as eating and drinking; don’t always demand that you never make mistakes. Judgments can allow for errors, but if the market trend changes and you stubbornly refuse to take a loss, that is completely irresponsible to yourself.

How should we view the upcoming market? The overall upward trend should still be ongoing, but due to the rapid short-term rise, I personally believe there should be a 1-hour pullback within this week. The pullback is to build momentum for the next push towards 100,000, so there’s no need to panic; just seize the opportunity.

BTC

Due to the rapid changes in the market, this article can only make predictions based on the market conditions at the time of publication. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest market changes, which should only be used as a reference.

1H:

At the 1-hour level, the current upward movement is likely still ongoing, and there should still be a 15-minute upward movement missing internally, so it may continue to extend upwards. The target to watch is around 90000, and after another push, there should be a 1-hour pullback, with the next 1-hour pullback likely retracing to around 80000. After completing the 1-hour pullback, it should push again to 95000, meaning another 1-hour upward movement. This is the expected possible trend, but of course, the actual market may have many changes, so we need to observe as we go.

15M:

At the 15-minute level, there is currently a 15-minute pullback in progress. This pullback should be watched around 84000~85200. If 84000 can hold, then there should be another 15-minute rebound towards 90000. If it cannot hold, then consider a further pullback to around 82000.

ETH

Ethereum is similar; it is also undergoing a 15-minute pullback. Pay attention to whether this pullback stabilizes around 3180~3200. If it stabilizes, it can still make another 15-minute rebound towards 3450.

Trend Direction

Weekly Level: Direction is upward, currently undergoing a new weekly upward movement, with an overall target looking at 100,000+.

Daily Level: Direction is upward, with the daily upward movement first looking to see if it can break through 100,000.

4-Hour Level: Direction is upward, with attention on 95000 above.

1-Hour Level: Direction is upward, expecting a 1-hour pullback after this Wednesday, with the current upward movement not yet finished.

15-Minute Level: Direction is upward; if 84000 holds, there will be another 15-minute upward movement towards 90,000.

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The article is time-sensitive; please pay attention to risks. The views in the article are personal suggestions and for reference only!

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