During last weekend's online discussion, when answering a reader's question about whether to maintain a 25% position that would never be sold, I talked about possibly taking a different approach after Bitcoin reaches its peak in this cycle.

This question was also raised by a reader at the end of an article in the past couple of days.

In the last cycle, when the bull market was nearing madness, I mentioned in an article that I would take two measures: one was to set a sell limit at high prices, and the other was to at least keep (approximately) 20% to 30% of my position without liquidating it, holding onto it forever.

The reason I previously kept a portion of my position without ever liquidating it was based on a long-term positive outlook for Bitcoin and Ethereum, with this long-term perspective referring to at least the next 10 to 20 years.

The past decade has left us with countless painful examples: most holders of Bitcoin who exited midway through these years perfectly missed the once-in-a-century opportunity that Bitcoin could have brought them to transcend social classes—most of them forever missed out on even greater gains due to the temptation of trading.

I am also very concerned about making the same mistake, but I know I might also be unable to resist the temptation of trading, so I set a rule for myself to at least always hold a portion of my position.

In previous articles, I have mentioned more than once that after reading the works of predecessors like Buffett, Munger, and Fisher this year, I have gained a different understanding of the strategies of "holding long without selling" and "buying low and selling high."

"Holding long without selling" does not mean mechanically holding onto an asset forever without selling; rather, it means that in many cases, according to the standards these predecessors used to choose those assets, there are actually not many opportunities to sell.

"Buying low and selling high" may seem like a price-driven behavior on the surface, but fundamentally, it has a completely different thought process.

What many people refer to as "buying low and selling high" is actually a decision made by investors based on predicting market trends. Countless cases have shown that, apart from a few genius-like individuals, most investors cannot predict the market accurately, consistently, and over the long term. Once a prediction goes wrong, all previous gains may be lost.

So what about these predecessors' "buying low and selling high"?

Their "buying low and selling high" decisions are not based on predicting future market trends but rather on judging the "intrinsic value" of the assets they hold and then comparing that with market prices to make decisions.

We can clearly see the contrast between these two thought processes with a simple example.

For instance, if Apple's stock price today is $200.

If predicting future market trends, one would operate like this:

I estimate the market will drop tomorrow, so I will sell Apple today; I estimate the market will rise tomorrow, so I will buy Apple today.

If comparing Apple's intrinsic value and price, one would operate like this:

I calculate that Apple's actual value is $500, so I will buy today; I calculate that Apple's actual value is $50, so I will sell today.

If we think about Bitcoin in the way these predecessors do, then my core logic should be to estimate Bitcoin's "intrinsic value" and then compare that value with the price to derive my actions.

The specific thought process is roughly as follows:

As I mentioned earlier, I am optimistic about Bitcoin's development over the next 10 years, so my fundamental starting point is to estimate Bitcoin's value with a 10-year timeframe.

If I estimate that Bitcoin's "value" will reach $300,000 in 10 years, then there is no need to sell at today's price of $100,000. Moreover, within these 10 years, even considering leaving a safety margin, Bitcoin priced below $200,000 is still cheap and worth buying.

Following this line of thought, theoretically, as long as Bitcoin does not reach $300,000 within these 10 years, I should continue to hold it rather than sell.

So, setting aside emotions, what I should do rationally is very clear.

But I know that habitual thinking might make it difficult for me to accept this line of thought in a short time, so I can try to gradually change my habits—starting from this cycle.

Therefore, I mentioned in the online discussion that if Bitcoin's price continues to reach new highs next year, as long as it is not excessively high, I will increase the proportion of my permanent holdings, for example, to 40% or more.

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