The possibility of global conflict is a hot topic after U.S. President Joe Biden approved Ukraine’s use of American-made missiles to strike deeper into Russian territory. This decision comes despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s stark warning that such actions could be considered a declaration of war. Russia has voiced concerns that these moves might drag NATO and the U.S. into direct involvement, ratcheting up tensions even further.
A Russian lawmaker called Biden’s choice a “very big step toward World War III,” adding that it’s pouring “fuel to the fire” of the ongoing war. Meanwhile, on the blockchain-powered prediction marketplace Polymarket, bettors are speculating on whether a nuclear weapon will detonate in 2024. According to the wager’s rules, the market will resolve to “Yes” if a nuclear weapon is used anywhere in the world before Dec. 31, 2024, at 11:59 p.m. ET. If not, the market will settle on “No.”
Polymarket odds at 11 a.m. ET on Nov. 19, 2024.
As of 11 a.m. ET on Nov. 19, the wager on Polymarket has racked up about $1.64 million in trading volume. At the same time on Tuesday, bettors on the platform are pegging the odds of a nuclear weapon detonating this year at just 11%. One commenter in the discussion thread quipped, “literally free money guys.” Adding to the buzz, Zero Hedge, the financial blog and news aggregator, jumped into the conversation on X, cheekily posting, “Good luck collecting ‘YES.’”
CNN reports that months of deliberation preceded the decision to approve the use of Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) within Russia. Meanwhile, Polymarket users aren’t just speculating on nuclear detonation—they’re also placing bets on whether Ukraine and Russia will agree to a ceasefire in 2024. The sentiment is overwhelmingly pessimistic: only 7% believe a ceasefire is on the horizon, while a whopping 94% think the conflict will grind on.
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