First, the conclusion: People are unhappy with Bitcoin at 98,000, while retail investors are thrilled with Ethereum at 3,200, indicating that most retail investors do not hold Bitcoin. The Ethereum vehicle is still too heavy, and most people have not been washed out yet.

After comforting myself for so long, if Ethereum really doesn't rise this time and becomes the new "EOS," I just want to say: if Vitalik doesn't apologize, I will hit you every time I see you.

The theory of "Ethereum changing hands" has sparked many discussions among both staunch ETH holders and firm opponents. Here are some additional thoughts:

1. Who is the new player?

In this wave of market washing, the old OGs of the industry (the original ICO crowd) have transformed into formal players from Wall Street financial institutions, and in the future, there may even be state-level players.

However, Teacher TVBee has provided a new perspective: the transition from PoW to PoS will definitely involve a change of players. Originally, mining pools no longer have a sustainable profit model, so they are not interested in pumping the price. New mining pools may enter the market, but they do not yet hold enough chips and cannot pump the price either. However, during the downturn, ETH did not drop too much because new players were buying at the bottom.

In other words, after Ethereum transitioned to PoS, the main change was from the old PoW miners to the new PoS miners.

However, Ethereum successfully upgraded in September 2022, and there was more than a year of bear market in between. Why was there not a sufficient change of hands during the bear market?

ETH has instead remained sluggish throughout 2024, especially after the approval of ETFs, with the BTC/ETH exchange rate continuously declining. Therefore, it may not be a change from PoW to PoW players, but rather from ICO veterans to Wall Street players.

2. Is the theory of Ethereum changing hands just a story for oneself?

Many signals have already appeared in the market, such as the previous approval of ETFs, the current expectations for staking, and the increase in holdings by major addresses. These are all objective positive signals.

Overall, the fundamentals of ETH have not changed; it remains a source of many innovations. Moreover, with the support of ETFs, which have yet to release staking benefits, and the increase in holdings by major addresses, how can one give up their chips at this time?

3. There are indeed many advantages, but we must also face some issues with Ethereum:

Compared to Bitcoin, the recognition of Ethereum by outsiders is insufficient. Therefore, one can only wait until traditional financial institutions have fully allocated Bitcoin before they look for new opportunities and notice Ethereum.

Compared to other Layer 1 public chains, especially Solana, ETH's biggest problem is its excessive focus on the infrastructure layer, while the development of the application layer is lacking.

Especially the trend of disconnection from C-end users has caused Ethereum's narrative to drift further away from the actual needs of ordinary users. Naturally, how can ordinary users hold ETH? The ETH ecosystem needs a killer application to emerge.

Among these, solving the liquidity fragmentation issue through L2 interoperability is crucial. The situation where Ethereum brings a group of L2s to fight together has a major problem: this group of L2s is loose, leading to poor user experience and fragmented liquidity.

Therefore, L2 interoperability is particularly important, and some solutions have indeed emerged, such as chain abstraction.

4. Seeking a sword in carving

In comparison to Solana, the change of players for Solana occurred after the FTX incident, but ETH currently has no major negative news to wash many people out, so it can only exchange time for space. Therefore, ETH's change of players is a long process of washing.

Some ask: Does Solana have any disadvantages compared to Ethereum?

Solana is a performance-enhanced version of Ethereum, improving performance at the cost of decentralization and security.

When people mention Solana, they only think of it as a very fast Ethereum.

The consensus, ecosystem, and community that Ethereum possesses are all implicit moats.

In simple terms, you cannot create a smoother WeChat to defeat WeChat, nor can you use a better-performing Ethereum to defeat Ethereum.

Market competition only exists in the form of dimensionality reduction attacks, not parallel replacements.

Solana has not delivered a dimensionality reduction attack on Ethereum, which is its inherent "disadvantage."

5. The ETH vehicle is too heavy

ETH has a tendency to wash out all small retail investors and medium to long-term old players, mainly because the ETH vehicle is too heavy, with too many people optimistic about it. Without major negative news, it can only wash out most people through a long process.

Most retail investors do not hold Bitcoin but generally hold Ethereum.

Everyone wants higher excess returns and looks down on Bitcoin's "stable" returns, choosing what seems to have more room for growth between Bitcoin and Ethereum, which in turn makes the Ethereum vehicle heavier, ultimately leading to the current situation.

6. Will the BTC/ETH exchange rate continue to decline from the previous 0.05 to the current 0.03?

The crypto industry experiences short bull markets and long bear markets. In a cycle, the bull market lasts just over a year, and since this bull market started early, if it continues to wash out, the bull market will be gone, making this probability very low.

7. Some ask: Why didn't ETH gradually change hands when the price was low? Why is it changing hands now that it has risen?

One reason may be that the approval of the ETH ETF came too quickly, exceeding market expectations. At that time, many believed it would not be approved until at least the second half of 2024. This led to a rapid increase in ETH's price, but the change of hands was insufficient.

8. Can this wave wash out Sun Yuchen?

One can only say that the big cuts are still ongoing. Who can cut out Brother Sun? It should be noted that Sun Yuchen holds 700,000 ETH, which is worth 2.1 billion dollars at a price of 3,000. If one wants to wash out Sun Yuchen, it will take a very long time.

9. With so many people in the market FUDing Ethereum, should one change positions?

One can only say to hold on while crying. Having held for so long, having already endured a round of bear market, the sunk cost is too high. If one changes positions at this time, it is very likely to fall before dawn.

10. When can Ethereum lead the altcoin season?

One can only say that the timing is unpredictable, but the trend must be observed.

Just like we cannot predict the temperature tomorrow, we can feel the seasonal change that winter is coming.

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