Starting from the three giants of MicroStrategy, CoinBase, and MARA crypto stocks, a brief analysis of the market cap ceiling in the crypto industry.

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15 hours ago

Currently, only Coinbase and MicroStrategy have ever reached a market capitalization of over $100 billion in the cryptocurrency industry. This may indicate that a market cap ceiling has emerged in the crypto sector. For reference, Pfizer's market cap is $140 billion, with quarterly profits of $4 billion, which I believe represents the maximum height MicroStrategy could reach even if it experiences a significant surge.

Coinbase's Market Cap and Profitability: Coinbase was once one of the most profitable exchanges in the world, with a market cap exceeding $100 billion at one point. At the time of its IPO, its quarterly profit reached as high as $3 billion.

MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Holdings and Financing Strategy: MicroStrategy has been financing the purchase of Bitcoin through continuous bond issuance, currently holding 331,200 Bitcoins, which accounts for 1.5% of the total Bitcoin supply, with a holding value of $33 billion.

Guo Yu has shared that MicroStrategy's core model views long-term debt as profit on the balance sheet rather than generating cash flow. This explains why MicroStrategy has seen such significant increases.

Comparison of MicroStrategy and MARA's Profit Models: Assuming both companies raise $1.2 billion, MicroStrategy uses it to purchase Bitcoin, while MARA invests in mining machines.

When the price of Bitcoin rises from $50,000 to $100,000, MicroStrategy nets $1.2 billion from its Bitcoin investment, but this is unrelated to the company's business cash flow and is considered unrealized gains. Including the Bitcoin MicroStrategy previously accumulated, it actually earned over $15 billion in a year.

In contrast, MARA's $1.2 billion investment in mining, although the mining costs are high, has a payback period of one year for the mining machines, resulting in a cash flow of $100 million per month thereafter.

Thus, for the same $1.2 billion investment, MicroStrategy's profits depend on the price of Bitcoin, while MARA's profits depend on the duration of Bitcoin's price.

This is also the core reason I believe that as Bitcoin reaches $100,000, funds will flow from MicroStrategy into mining stocks. As long as the Bitcoin price remains at $100,000 and the hash rate remains unchanged, the longer the time, the higher the accumulated profits.

Therefore, for the same $1.2 billion investment, MicroStrategy's profits depend on the price of Bitcoin, while MARA's profits depend on the duration of Bitcoin's price.

Impact of Bitcoin Price on MicroStrategy: As the price of Bitcoin rises, the marginal effect of MicroStrategy's financing to purchase Bitcoin diminishes. If the price of Bitcoin has already reached $100,000, refinancing $1.2 billion becomes more challenging, and if the Bitcoin price only increases by 20%, profits will significantly decrease to $240 million.

Ceiling on Bitcoin Price and MicroStrategy's Financing Limitations: The potential for Bitcoin price increases is limited, which restricts MicroStrategy's growth potential in purchasing Bitcoin through financing. As the price of Bitcoin rises, MicroStrategy's ability to finance will also be constrained, meaning that the seemingly infinite upward spiral of the flywheel has its limits, and financing cannot continue indefinitely.

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