To cross the Yellow River with ice blocking the river, one must ascend the Taihang Mountains covered in snow

Hello everyone, I am trader Gege. I have already discussed some thoughts on Bitcoin in previous articles, and I would like to add some more ideas for us to exchange. Today's article is merely a personal prediction, and since it concerns a long-term cycle, its validity is uncertain. I have mentioned before that the market's long-term cycle is chaotic; we can only follow the pipeline rather than dig it out in advance. Today, I will estimate the general trend, which can be seen as an attempt to dig the pipeline in advance, so please take it as a casual read.

Currently, the price of Bitcoin is at 99,660, just a step away from 100,000 dollars, with more than a month left until 2025. This makes me wonder if 99,600 could be the peak for 2024. If it breaks through the six-figure mark, will the entire market enter a state of frenzy, and will social media start to hype it up again? This is undeniable.

Let’s look back at the previous bull market for reference. Although this bull market is different from the past, some aspects can still be referenced. Observing from the bull-bear cycle, the peak of the previous bull market was around 19,000 dollars, and the last bull market peaked around 69,000 dollars. During the last bull market, after breaking through 19,000 dollars, the retracement did not drop below that price. Following this line of thought, if this bull market continues, it should not drop below 69,000 dollars during its course.

Another point is that the bottom of the bear market in 2022 was around 15,000 dollars. Following this logic, if this bull market completes and enters a bear market, the bottom might be around 50,000 dollars. I mention this because it may not hold much significance for the current market situation, but extending the cycle can provide some reference for spot traders, especially for those looking to enter Bitcoin at this stage. They should think carefully about the current price; the potential gains are limited. Even if you just want to make a small profit, there’s no need to rush.

Currently, whether from a technical or emotional perspective, I personally believe the market needs a retracement. The technical indicators for the weekly level have a demand for correction after a series of consecutive weekly gains. This wave of over 30,000 dollars in increase needs to pause for a rest, so I estimate that there should be a retracement of around 10,000 dollars within the next 1-3 weeks, with an expected price around 85,000-83,000. After the adjustment ends, there should be another wave breaking through the 100,000 dollar mark, continuing to push the market into a frenzy, followed by a significant retracement around 120,000-130,000 dollars. This entire market cycle is expected to last until around mid-2025, and there may be one last bullish tail in the second half of the year before entering a bear market adjustment cycle.

This is just a prediction; we need to observe how the market unfolds. The approval of ETFs, along with the enthusiastic embrace of the crypto space by the Americans, is a good thing, though there are certainly conspiracies behind it. Regardless, we must manage our risk based on our own situations and follow the market to reap the benefits. The short-term bullish risk for Bitcoin is relatively high. For those trading in trends, you can focus on the 85,000-83,000 range for long positions, and for short positions, you can look at the 98,000-99,000 range to test the waters. Be sure to plan your positions reasonably; at the current price, the target for trend waves generally starts at around 10,000, so the entry range is quite large, and you should observe more before taking action.

The suggestions are for reference only. Manage your risk when entering the market, and control your profit and stop-loss spaces accordingly. Specific strategies should be consulted in real-time.

Alright, friends, we will see you next time. I wish everyone success in their trading endeavors and smooth sailing in the crypto space! More real-time advice will be sent internally. Today's brief update ends here. For more real-time advice on Bitcoin, find Gege.

Written by / I am trader Gege, a friend willing to accompany you in your resurgence.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。