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BTC
12-hour market review: After the line change in the early morning, it surged to 97200, and the current price has retreated to around 95000.
Recent focus: Resistance in the range of 97700--97200, support in the range of 94300--93600. Pay attention to acceleration after breaking the range.
Structural pattern: 2-hour top PB signal plus double K reversal engulfing signal, neck line pressure in the range of 97700--97200.
Trading ideas<<<<<<
Long position: If the price retraces in the range of 90000--91000 without breaking the entity, go long when a bottom pattern signal appears on the 5-minute or 30-minute chart.
Long position: If the price retraces in the range of 94300--93600 without breaking the entity, go long when a bottom pattern signal appears on the 5-minute or 30-minute chart.
Short position: If the price rebounds in the range of 97700--99900 without breaking the entity, go short when a top pattern signal appears on the 5-minute or 30-minute chart.
Personal opinion:
BTC's rebound yesterday did not break the previous high, but the rebound strength was slightly greater than expected. Yesterday we provided two short position points: one in the range of 94300--95000 and another in the range of 97700--99900. The price was awkward, with the high point around 97200, which led to many friends possibly missing the opportunity to open short positions.
From the K-line signal perspective, the 2-hour level K-line did provide a signal. The double K reversal signal was very clear. Therefore, this short position could have been opened, and it could have yielded a good profit.
Currently, for long position strategies, the low point of 90800 during this retracement is a good reference. I believe there is no problem in laying out long positions around the point of 90000 with a stop loss set at 90000.
Of course, for all positions, whether long or short, at least a K-line signal should be seen on the 5-minute or 30-minute chart before opening a position. Do not open a position without a signal.
For real-time strategy orders, please follow the WeChat Official Account to receive them.
Everyone should pay attention to position management and be cautious with heavy positions.
Graphical explanation: The yellow line represents the structure and pattern lines, the red line represents the segment slope line, and the white line represents the support and resistance of the key neck line. Short positions should be made near the upper side of the range, and long positions should be made near the lower side of the range. If the entity breaks support and resistance, light positions can be used to chase short or long. Set stop losses at the tops and bottoms of the breaking K-lines.
ETH
12-hour market review: The price rose unilaterally to around 3680 and then began to retreat, currently around 3620 after a rebound near 3560.
Recent focus: Resistance in the range of 3700--3680, support in the range of 3560--3530. Pay attention to acceleration downwards after breaking. Extreme downside pin: range of 3340--3280.
Structural pattern: 2-hour double pin bottom signal, pay attention to the continued downward trend if the rebound does not break the previous high.
Trading ideas<<<<<<
Short position: If the price rebounds in the range of 3700--3680 without breaking the entity, go short when a top pattern signal appears on the 5-minute or 30-minute chart.
Short position: If the price rebounds in the range of 3620--3640 without breaking the entity, go short when a top pattern signal appears on the 5-minute or 30-minute chart.
Long position: If the price retraces in the range of 3560--3530 without breaking the entity, go long when a bottom pattern signal appears on the 5-minute or 30-minute chart.
Long position: If the price retraces in the range of 3340--3280 without breaking the entity, go long when a bottom pattern signal appears on the 5-minute or 30-minute chart.
Personal opinion:
ETH's unilateral rise at the 2-hour level yesterday was indeed unexpected. While BTC did not break the previous high, ETH did break the previous high, leading to an accelerated upward trend.
From the low point to the high point, it rose by 13.33%. How to interpret this percentage? It means that all short positions with 10x leverage in the range of 3350--3250 were completely liquidated. This is a terrifying number and reflects the ruthlessness of this market.
Before ETH breaks its historical high, I will lay out short positions around the high points whenever I see a signal.
There are two reasons for this:
First: This rapid rise did not have a technical pullback.
Second: To prevent the occurrence of black swan events this year.
From the perspectives of weekly K, monthly K, and daily K, they are all in a bullish trend. The reason I continue to be bearish and lay out short positions is that my position control is reasonable, and I will hedge with long positions when my short positions incur losses. Therefore, I can hold short positions recklessly until a major level stops rising, at which point I will sell long positions to increase my short positions. So, when you see my analysis and trading ideas, do not blindly resist the positions, and pay attention to position management. Always set stop losses when opening positions to prevent extreme market conditions.
For real-time strategy orders, please follow the WeChat Official Account to receive them.
Everyone should pay attention to position management and be cautious with heavy positions.
Graphical explanation: The yellow line represents the structure and pattern lines, the breaking of the slope of the large segment. The white line represents the support and resistance of the key neck line. Short positions should be made near the upper side of the range, and long positions should be made near the lower side of the range. If the entity breaks support and resistance, light positions can be used to chase short or long. Set stop losses at the tops and bottoms of the breaking K-lines.
A cold knowledge a day:
How to lightly position long-term trades: divide the total position you want to enter into 2-4 entries. After entering, do not sell casually; for long-term trades, do not exit unless a double K or triple K reversal signal appears on the daily chart. (Lightly positioning should not be too heavy, otherwise it cannot withstand the fluctuations of pin bars.)
Analysis strategies are time-sensitive; please refer to the real-time guidance of [WeChat Official Account: Day Trading Professional]!
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The author has been engaged in financial market investment research for many years and currently mainly analyzes and guides stock, futures, and cryptocurrency contract/spot operations. If you want to know more about real-time guidance, liquidation consultation, and learning market observation skills, investors are welcome to follow [Day Trading Professional]** WeChat Official Account for more real-time market analysis.**
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