The Russian ruble fell to its lowest level since March 2022 after the U.S. imposed sanctions on 50 Russian banks, further disrupting the inflow of foreign currency into the country. On Nov. 27, the ruble-dollar exchange rate reached 113 rubles per dollar. However, at the time of writing, the ruble had recovered slightly, trading just above 108 rubles per dollar.

According to a Bloomberg report, the ruble rapidly depreciated after the Office of Foreign Asset Control (OFAC) announced new measures targeting Gazprombank and other Russian banks. Gazprombank is believed to be instrumental in servicing international payments for key Russian gas exports.

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Western countries led by the U.S. responded with sanctions and cut off Moscow from the global payments system. Initially, this caused the ruble to depreciate sharply, but it later recovered and ended the year as one of the best-performing currencies.

When sanctions were first imposed, Western officials intentionally excluded the Russian oil and gas industry from the target list. At the time, there were concerns that such a move could destabilize European countries heavily reliant on Russian gas and oil. However, with the U.S. now the top supplier of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe, Western countries have now taken the step of targeting key Russian financial institutions.

Some analysts quoted in the report predict that the latest sanctions will likely further complicate foreign trade transactions and make it less profitable to bring foreign exchange liquidity into Russia.

“The current trend of a weakening ruble may prove sustainable on the horizon of 2025,” reportedly said in a note.

Analysts predict that the ruble could depreciate further, potentially reaching 119.8 per dollar in early 2025, due to rising geopolitical tensions and a lack of incentives to stabilize the exchange rate.

Since Nov. 21, the ruble has depreciated by 8% against the dollar. Year-to-date, the ruble has weakened approximately 19% against the U.S. dollar and 18% against the Chinese yuan.

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