The highly anticipated Bitcoin MENA Conference grandly opened on December 11, inviting many industry leaders to participate. Among them, the founder of the well-known exchange Binance, CZ Zhao Changpeng, also held a fireside chat at the MENA Conference discussing the future development trends of Bitcoin. From national strategic reserves to global adoption in international trade, it can be said that the discussion was full of valuable insights.

CZ stated that the value of Bitcoin lies not just in its price, but in its practicality. In the future, Bitcoin should not only be used for investment purposes but should serve as currency itself. Over the next 10-15 years, the use cases for Bitcoin will become more diversified, and we may even see more countries adopting Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, which will further drive up its price.

Recently, the United States took the lead in announcing the establishment of a Bitcoin strategic reserve, prompting other small and medium-sized countries to follow suit. CZ highly praised this move by the U.S., stating that countries that act sooner will reap greater benefits, and he believes this is the most effective asset allocation strategy. Regarding whether ZG will follow suit, CZ mentioned that ZG's policies are currently opaque, but he does not rule out the possibility of a low-key layout, suggesting they may have already begun actions that are not yet public. He also believes that Hong Kong could become a testing ground for ZG's Bitcoin policies, although the current regulatory attitude towards cryptocurrencies remains conservative.

In terms of cryptocurrency, after experiencing a slight pullback earlier this week, Bitcoin surged again yesterday, breaking the $100,000 mark following the release of the U.S. November end-of-quarter CPI year-on-year and November adjusted CPI month-on-month data. Around six o'clock this morning, it briefly surpassed last week's high of $101,800 before retreating, and as of the time of writing, it is priced at $100,782, with a nearly 24-hour increase of 4.71%.

Previously, after Bitcoin first broke the $100,000 mark, it did not manage to stabilize above this level before experiencing a pullback, so it cannot be said that Bitcoin has confirmed a breakthrough of this historic barrier. A false breakout of Bitcoin could lead to a weak performance in the cryptocurrency market in the short term, with upward momentum appearing somewhat fatigued. There have also been counter-trend signals during the day, indicating that Bitcoin may need some time to consolidate before resuming its upward trend. If it can break through again after this consolidation, there is hope for adjusting the historical high of $104,000.

Bitcoin Four-Hour Chart

First, according to the Bollinger Bands indicator on the Bitcoin 4H chart, the current price is near the upper band, indicating that the market may be overbought in the short term. If the price continues to struggle to break through the upper band and shows signs of retreat, it may adjust towards the middle band. The slight expansion of the Bollinger Bands indicates that market volatility has increased, and we may see significant price fluctuations in the short term.

Second, based on the KDJ indicator on the Bitcoin 4H chart, the current K-line and D-line values are above 80, indicating an overbought area, which may face pullback pressure in the short term. If the J-line continues to fall from a high position and crosses below the K-line and D-line to form a death cross, the pullback signal will become more pronounced.

Finally, according to the MACD indicator on the Bitcoin 4H chart, the DIF line and DEA line are showing a slight tendency to converge at a high level. If a death cross forms, the price may experience a pullback in the short term. The MACD red histogram has also started to gradually shorten, indicating that bullish momentum is weakening. Currently, the MACD is above the zero line, and the bullish trend has not been completely broken, but caution is still needed for adjustment signals.

In summary, the current trend shows that Bitcoin has certain pullback risks at high levels, especially when the MACD shows a death cross and the KDJ indicates an overbought retreat. The price may test the middle band of the Bollinger Bands or even lower positions. If the price can effectively stabilize above the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, and the MACD red histogram continues to expand, the upward trend will continue.

Therefore, the following suggestion is provided for reference: consider going long on Bitcoin if it pulls back to the 100,300-100,000 range, with a target of 102,000-102,800 and a stop-loss at 99,700.

Instead of giving you a 100% accurate suggestion, it is better to provide you with the right mindset and trend. After all, teaching someone to fish is better than giving them fish; a suggestion may earn you a moment, but learning the mindset will earn you a lifetime! The focus is on the mindset, grasping the trend, and planning the market layout and positions. What I can do is use my practical experience to help you, guiding your investment decisions and management in the right direction.

Writing time: (2024-12-12, 16:20)

(Written by - Daxian Talks About Coins) Disclaimer: Online publication has delays, and the above suggestions are for reference only. The author is dedicated to research and analysis in the fields of Bitcoin, Ethereum, altcoins, forex, stocks, etc., and has been involved in the financial market for many years, possessing rich practical experience. Investment carries risks, and caution is advised when entering the market. For more real-time market analysis, please follow the official account Daxian Talks About Coins for discussion and exchange.

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