The world is bustling, all for profit; the world is bustling, all for profit to go! Hello everyone, I am your friend Lao Cui talking about coins, focusing on digital currency market analysis, striving to convey the most valuable market information to the vast number of coin friends. Welcome everyone's attention and likes, and reject any market smokescreens.
After discussing a wave of trends, taking advantage of the small fluctuations, I would like to talk to everyone again about future issues. Many friends are not very clear about the interest rate cut issue, and the application logic of blockchain technology in the coin circle is also unclear. Most are just watching Bitcoin rise and then participate in the struggle, without understanding its essence. Today's article revolves around these two topics. First, regarding the interest rate cut issue, more friends only see the 25 basis point cut, ignoring the previous rate hike issue. I mentioned the data in previous articles; since 2022 until this year's interest rate cut, there have been a total of 525 basis points of rate hikes. According to the current interest rate cut schedule, there will be a total cut of about 200 points. On an annual basis, from 2022 to the end of this round of interest rate cuts, there will be a total of 325 basis points of rate hikes, and the overall operation is still under a high-interest rate state. Similarly, the current main theme in the U.S. is still inflation, and coupled with high interest rates, the essence of its finance is not healthy. Including during the mask period, the U.S. overissued 2 trillion dollars, which has not yet been digested. For the entire financial market, in the short term, it will naturally expand, and the returns are considerable, but in the long run, the bubble will eventually burst. How will it burst? That is a century-old question!
Many friends do not understand what high-interest rate operation means. Lao Cui gives you a direct answer: this means that loan interest rates are still relatively high, and there will not be many giants willing to invest funds into future market competition, including the coin circle, which belongs to the future market. It also means that more institutions will replan their expected investments. The investment in the coin circle that can enter everyone's sight is only the listing plan at the beginning of this year, connecting traditional financial market funds directly into the coin circle market, which is the underlying capital supplement for Bitcoin's surge. The listing is the foundation of Bitcoin, and the upper structure will inevitably require more people to participate. This wave of high interest rates has almost limited the number of people in the upper structure. How long can a market relying on retail investors survive? Therefore, after the interest rate cuts are reduced next year, it can be clearly seen that small institutions are withdrawing funds. But this does not mean the end of the bull market, because the underlying structure has not changed. The interest rate cut only extends the time; it does not mean there will be no more cuts. There are still two opportunities for interest rate cuts in 2026. The short-term surge may turn into a slow bull market.
Many friends are accustomed to the growth patterns of the coin circle, leading to a short-term collapse where almost everyone follows the trend to withdraw. Do not be too blind; if you only look at the patterns of the coin circle, it seems that according to convention, it should indeed show a bear market trend at this stage. The biggest reason for not being able to fall is that the biggest supporters of the coin circle have not spoken. Trump is still bottom-fishing; what is there to be afraid of holding? At this stage, everyone sees Bitcoin's surge, which is completely because it has not yet reached its actual value, based on the gray industry. If everyone thinks that a market of less than 400 billion can represent the gray industry, then you really need to seriously consider whether you are suitable for this market. Lao Cui previously did not support everyone holding Ethereum, largely due to the selling by the Vitalik team, and secondly, Trump does not hold Ethereum. Lao Cui believes that the only protagonist he wants to promote in the coin circle is Bitcoin. But at this stage, everyone can see that Trump currently holds Bitcoin, Ethereum, and even small coins like VANA, which proves that he wants to operate the entire coin circle market. The fact is that no coin has outperformed Bitcoin in growth returns. For users with a certain scale, the focus must be on mainstream currencies.
The second issue is about blockchain technology. There are even people in the coin circle who do not know Trump's and the main players' wallet addresses. Lao Cui copied the addresses, but due to control issues, I cannot send them out, so I will just briefly explain. First, all operational rules in the coin circle are based on blockchain technology, and blockchain technology allows everyone to see each person's wallet address, but it cannot know who this wallet address belongs to. How to infer this is through public chain data; as long as funds are transferred from one wallet address to another, it must go through the public chain. The public chain is data that everyone can see, and you can check it yourself. Large-scale transactions are almost impossible to escape everyone's sight. The ledger technology of blockchain allows everyone to reconcile accounts. If you cannot understand this issue, it can be completely defined as speculative players. Wallet addresses are publicly disclosed by almost all giants, including Trump; this is their mechanism issue, and personal and corporate finances need to be disclosed. Everyone can see what coins and quantities are flowing into their wallets. Of course, there are also ways to evade this, which is private trading, directly giving the hard drive to individuals; this data cannot be traced. Basically, the transactions of BlackRock and Grayscale are like this. When everyone sees public chain data, the transaction may have already been completed; it just transferred out from Grayscale's account at that moment. The transactions of giants are mostly done privately, and releasing news is just to let retail investors help take over.
Returning to the coin circle market, the issue everyone is concerned about is the account that holds the most currency. Currently, Satoshi Nakamoto holds between 1.2 to 1.5 million coins, and many people worry about their selling. Lao Cui has mentioned this issue before; Satoshi Nakamoto is not an individual but must be in the form of an organization, and they will not sell. Who is behind it, Lao Cui has explained in detail before; this layout may revolve more around the Federal Reserve, and the target is not us. Trump mentioned this during his presidency; the U.S. has a deep state structure, and many of his strategies cannot be implemented. How many conspiracies are behind it, Lao Cui does not want to elaborate; everyone just needs to know that his advocacy for the coin circle is definitely not because of Musk's recommendation. Musk is just one of the candidates to stand on the platform, and the layout of the coin circle is not Trump's doing. Think about it; Trump was extremely resistant to the coin circle in its early days, so why is he supporting it so vigorously this year? Top politicians do not think about issues as simply as we do. If you do not understand, you can look at the example of the Ming Dynasty; read history to gain wisdom!
Lao Cui summarizes: All of Lao Cui's layouts are based on Trump's actions to predict the future trends of the coin circle. If he can succeed, the coin circle will reach heights that everyone cannot imagine. Do not say that the current 100,000 mark is the focus; even 200,000 may not be the key. The entire market is at least half of the U.S. stock market, and there is a chance to surpass the U.S. stock market; it all depends on the outcome of his confrontation with the Federal Reserve. Everyone does not need to think too simply; the existence of the deep state will not allow Trump to win so easily. This struggle has been going on for a long time, and the layout has almost started since the 2008 crisis. This does not mean he will definitely win. But for us ordinary investors, the market value of Bitcoin and the coin circle does not need to be looked at so far, but its essence will not end its growth because of this year's high point. Especially since many coins have not set new historical highs, at this stage, Bitcoin is still the only star, and Ethereum has not even touched the previous high point of 4,800; there is still room for growth. At least this wave of bull market should allow Ethereum to break a new high, which is still very easy. The current trend will mainly be characterized by fluctuations, continuing to fluctuate until the later large funds take over. Therefore, Lao Cui will still adopt a low-buy strategy. It is very difficult for both long and short positions to break out, but Lao Cui does not support everyone choosing high shorts. Once the later takeover actions begin, it will still be difficult to maintain profits on short positions. Even if Trump fails, there will still be people advocating for the coin circle; even if everyone fails, there will still be industries surviving in the coin circle. Where there is light, there is darkness!
Original creation by WeChat public account: Lao Cui Talks About Coins. For assistance, please contact directly.
Lao Cui's message: Investing is like playing chess; a master can see five, seven, or even more than ten steps ahead, while a novice can only see two or three steps. The master considers the overall situation and the big trend, not focusing on one piece or one territory, aiming for the ultimate victory. The novice, however, fights for every inch of land, frequently switching between long and short positions, only competing for short-term gains, resulting in frequent entrapment.
This material is for learning reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trade at your own risk!
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