Changing habits is a very difficult thing. When a smoking man successfully quits, there is nothing he cannot achieve. In fact, the same principle applies in the financial market; it’s just that you haven’t made the decision yet! There are no wrong market conditions, only poor mindsets and strategies. How can someone who hasn’t been tempered by the market make stable trades!
Yesterday, the market showed a strong side. After a continuous low-level fluctuation during the day, Bitcoin experienced a rapid rebound in the evening, completing a movement from a low point near 92500 to a high point near 99500. It has currently slightly retraced and has been fluctuating around 98200 for a long time. Yesterday, we set up a short position on Bitcoin, but unfortunately, we were stopped out. This wave of market movement was indeed unexpected in its short-term strength. We also analyzed that a high point would appear, followed by a pullback, as the current market shows a trend that requires continuous washing out. However, the price of Bitcoin is relatively high now, and casual fluctuations can lead to thousands of points, increasing the intensity of the washout.
From a technical perspective, yesterday's rise resulted in a full-bodied bullish candlestick on the daily chart. The price is currently at a height where it is closely adhering to the moving averages, and there is no indication of stabilizing above the moving averages, which may face a short-term directional choice. The daily level is still in an adjustment area and has not formed a significant change. From market data, although there was a strong rise yesterday, ETF funds were flowing out, bringing some uncertainty for the future. Therefore, our recent view is still focused on observing the washout market, without overly concerning ourselves with short-term rises and falls.
On the four-hour chart, yesterday's rise saw a large bullish candlestick emerge, but there is still a lack of strong volume, which has not sufficiently changed the previous downtrend. Generally, in such cases, the issue of sustainability is emphasized. After the market peaks, the current MACD has started to contract from a high position. If it cannot continue to rebound upwards, it will face a pullback and another downward test. Therefore, I do not believe the current short-term market is excessively strong. Today is Christmas holiday, and with the Western festivities, market liquidity may be poor. It is likely that the market will maintain a short-term fluctuation before seeking direction. Overall, we believe that from a long-term trend perspective, the washout will continue, and after a pullback, it will complete a breakthrough to a new historical high.
In the short term, combining the small cycle of the fifteen-minute level, it is important to pay attention to the high and low points created earlier in the morning. These two points can represent the short-term market choice; whichever side breaks through will lead the market in that direction. Personally, I am optimistic about a downward movement. Therefore, during the day, we are still looking for opportunities to participate in short positions, with around 98800 as a participation point. If the market starts to choose a direction to break through, we will adjust our layout in real-time.
Ethereum was set up for a short position at 3500 yesterday and was not stopped out. Currently, Ethereum's market movement cannot be considered independently strong, and the short position can still be held; continue to set up at 3500.
The altcoin market has performed relatively well, representing a wave of independent small movements, with standout performances from Grayscale's purchased coins like ZEN, BAT, and LPT. It seems the market trusts these coins backed by large institutions, including those bought by the special management family and those endorsed by wealthy figures. In short, the explosion of altcoins is still a very encouraging thing for us retail investors, as there are not many retail investors who can afford Bitcoin at this price. More are relying on altcoins, hoping for a more sustained explosion of strong altcoins!
【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks yourself. The article has been reviewed and published, and market conditions change in real-time. The information may be delayed, and strategies may lack timeliness. Specific operations should be based on real-time strategies.】
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