Hotspot Interpretation: Statistics show that so far, the most popular cryptocurrency narrative for 2024 is "Memecoin," attracting nearly 31% of investors. It accounts for nearly 15% of market traffic, followed by AI and RWA narratives, which account for 12.58% and 8.64% of market traffic, respectively.

We believe that the popularity of the "Memecoin" narrative in the cryptocurrency space in 2024 reflects the market's preference for fun and community-driven assets. Memecoins attract nearly 31% of investors and account for nearly 15% of market traffic. Beyond traditional investment logic, the market has shown a strong interest in assets that resonate culturally and have social media influence. The AI and RWA narratives occupy the second and third positions in market traffic, indicating investors' focus on emerging technologies and the tokenization of real-world assets. The rise of Memecoins is not just a financial phenomenon; it also integrates humor, community participation, and cultural movements, becoming an undeniable force in the crypto space. This trend may continue to influence the development of the crypto market, especially in attracting new investors and innovative projects. In the coming year, we should also pay more attention to the performance of these three major conceptual sectors.**

Cryptocurrency Market Analysis:

BTC Market Analysis:

After BTC fell from its recent high of over $108,350 on December 18, the market showed a clear downward trend in the first half of the past week, dropping to a low of $92,232 due to the hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve and Powell's remarks on Bitcoin reserves. After testing the low support twice on December 24, it rebounded, reaching a daily high of around $99,958. During Christmas yesterday, the US stock and futures markets were closed, likely due to many European and American traders being on holiday, resulting in reduced trading volume and relatively narrowed short-term volatility. Recently, it has been testing the previous upward trend line with wide fluctuations, operating around the control points of the Coinank main force's chip distribution chart.

From a four-hour perspective, after a potential double bottom formation, it is currently testing the neckline resistance near $99,500 before retreating. If it can break through later, it would favor an upward continuation of the rebound, with upper resistance levels at $100,300 and $102,770. However, if it faces pressure, it may retest the lower support near $92,520. Considering the recent inflow of BTC into exchanges and the historically bearish trend after Christmas, precautions should be taken.

ETH Market Analysis: ETH fell from its recent high of $4,105.47, similarly influenced by last week's hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve and the reduced expectations for future rate cuts, dropping to a low of around $3,101.73. On the evening of December 20, due to the PCE index released in the US falling to a five-month low, which measures inflation levels, it may affect the Federal Reserve's future interest rate policy, potentially leading to a loosening stance, which is bearish for the dollar but bullish for dollar-denominated assets like gold, US stocks, and the crypto market, resulting in an immediate price reaction with ETH rebounding to around $3,554.4 before retreating and then rebounding again, with some afternoon adjustments. The short-term upper resistance levels are at $3,554.4 and $3,719.9, while if it faces resistance and retraces, the lower support levels are at $3,217.25 and around $3,101.73.

Altcoin Analysis: In the past 7 days, altcoins experienced a significant overall decline around December 20, but performance was relatively mixed. Weaker altcoins have dropped to levels seen on the day of the US presidential election in November, while stronger altcoins have undergone normal corrections and recently experienced significant rebounds. The Virtuals Protocol ecosystem, Pump.fun ecosystem, and AI Agent Launchpad sectors have seen relatively high gains, with many related concept tokens showing substantial increases, and some coins even doubling in value.

Options Market Analysis: In the options market, after a washout last week, spot prices have maintained sideways fluctuations. This Friday, nearly $20 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options will expire, accounting for nearly half of Deribit's total open interest. The expiration of options may trigger end-of-quarter volatility sell-offs, especially as spot prices remain stagnant and sellers continue to roll over short positions. If BTC breaks through $100,000, volatility may remain stable; otherwise, altcoins may have a chance to catch up. Although the European and American markets are closed for the Christmas holiday, the crypto market has shown a significant increase driven by Bitcoin. Due to poor market liquidity during the Christmas holiday until year-end settlements, the momentum required for price fluctuations is minimal. In terms of options, short-term implied volatility (IV) has decreased compared to the previous day, and market makers are nearing the end of their rollovers, with IV expected to remain stable until the end of the year. Currently, the maximum pain point for Bitcoin options is at $84,000, and for Ethereum, it is at $3,000; these annual maximum pain points may become ineffective as in previous years.

Macroeconomic Data Analysis: On the evening of December 20, the US released PCE and core PCE data, all of which were below expectations. This alleviated some investors' concerns about a reduction in the number of rate cuts next year. The US Department of Commerce reported that the PCE, the inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve, rose by 2.4% year-on-year in November, while economists had expected a 2.5% increase. Estimates based on the consumer price index and other data indicate that the PCE price index for the 12 months ending in November is a surprisingly comprehensive report of cooling inflation, leading to a sell-off of the dollar, while US stocks, gold, and the crypto market rebounded as a result.

Stablecoin Analysis: From the beginning of 2024 to now, the total market value of stablecoins has increased by 48%. In the past 7 days, the overall market value of stablecoins rose by 0.29% to $20.4786 billion, with short-term growth slowing, consistent with recent market trends, possibly due to a decrease in short-term market demand.

Gas Fee Analysis: The average Gas Fee on Ethereum over the past 7 days has dropped to 4.58 Gwei, significantly down from last week, indicating reduced network activity. This may have been influenced by the OpenSea Foundation's announcement hinting at an upcoming token issuance, as the average Gas Fee on the Ethereum network previously surged to 54.3 Gwei. Uniswap, CoinTool, and Tether are the top three protocols consuming the most ETH this week.

BTC Data Analysis:

Historical Bitcoin Price Data on Christmas: The price of Bitcoin on Christmas 2024 has more than doubled compared to last year, reaching $98,200, which is 392,800 times that of 2010.

We believe that the price of Bitcoin reaching $98,200 on Christmas 2024, more than doubling from last year, reflects an astonishing increase of over 392,000 times in 14 years. This remarkable growth in Bitcoin's price reflects the maturation of Bitcoin as an asset class and the increasing market acceptance. This growth may be related to several factors, including a gradually friendly regulatory environment, the approval of ETFs, and macroeconomic conditions such as expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, rising federal debt, and ongoing inflation, all of which enhance Bitcoin's appeal as a hedge. Institutional investors' interest in Bitcoin continues to grow, with strong on-chain fundamentals for Bitcoin and exchange balances at historical lows, indicating increased confidence among holders who are increasingly opting for self-custody. These factors collectively drive the sustained rise in Bitcoin's price while also demonstrating the market's recognition of Bitcoin's long-term value storage position.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。