Master's Discussion on Hot Topics:

Today, let's talk about Bitcoin's turnover rate in the last 24 hours, which is indeed absurdly low, even lower than on Christmas Day. It feels like many American investors are still at home drinking hot chocolate and haven't returned to the market at all.

The Master has mentioned before that holiday markets are characterized by a lack of liquidity, so don't take it too seriously. Sure enough, Bitcoin has pulled back a bit, and the price has returned to where it was before Christmas. The upcoming trend probably won't have any big news; it's likely to continue fluctuating around the 95K range. Why do I say this?

Because there are currently no negative news and no significant volatility. Even the Federal Reserve's repeated comments about the number of interest rate cuts in 2025 are almost fully digested by the market. Therefore, the Master personally believes that as long as no new surprises emerge, a significant drop is unlikely.

We are still in the low liquidity period of the Christmas and New Year holidays. Although the U.S. stock market opened a bit lively last night, today is the last trading day of the week, coinciding with a large number of options expiring.

The good news is that this batch of expiring options has a position of $4.2 billion that could be profitable, but it's likely that investors will choose to roll over rather than immediately sell off. So, this wave of delivery won't have a significant impact on the market.

Returning to Bitcoin itself, the low turnover rate basically puts no pressure on the support level. Although the price has dropped from its peak, those short-term speculators who made money have mostly exited, and the remaining losing positions are hesitant to act. From the current data, the support level around 95K-100K remains relatively solid, with no obvious signs of damage in the short term.

Now let's talk about Ethereum. Although the ETF data on Christmas Eve was down 70% compared to December 23, Ethereum still saw a net inflow! This is a clear win over Bitcoin, which has seen a net outflow for three consecutive working days. Ethereum has had two consecutive days of net inflow, which really gives it a "dark horse" vibe.

Especially BlackRock's investors, who are buying steadily, have also brought Fidelity and crypto asset management companies into the mix, directly acquiring over a thousand Ethereum. Even the selling giant Grayscale only reduced its holdings by 1,888 Ethereum this time, which can be considered "understated."

What does this indicate? It shows that the market's focus is gradually shifting from Bitcoin to Ethereum. Although Ethereum's price is still quite a distance from its historical high, the trend is already showing that institutions and investors are more optimistic about it. If Ethereum can maintain this wave of gains, the "party season" for altcoins may be approaching.

Master's Trend Analysis:

Bitcoin has not shown a significant rebound after the decline and continues to fluctuate within the range, with considerable volatility. In the area of dense trading, one can first refer to the range and observe the breakout situation at the upper and lower bounds, and adopt trading strategies based on the breakout direction.

Since the moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, the overall trend still leans towards a downward direction. Under the expectation of a rebound, one should gradually observe whether the price stabilizes above the moving averages to determine if a shift to a rebound strategy is possible.

Resistance Levels Reference:

First Resistance Level: 96400

Second Resistance Level: 97300

Support Levels Reference:

First Support Level: 95300

Second Support Level: 94800

Today's Suggestions:

If trading directly after a breakout, the risk is relatively high. It is recommended to wait for the candlestick to stabilize above the confirmed resistance level and form a phase of upward movement before entering a trade. The current market does not have a clear direction, and the fluctuations within the range are considerable, so it is advisable to flexibly adjust long and short positions.

From a long-term perspective, the market is still primarily in a fluctuating trend; from a short-term perspective, one can pay attention to opportunities for rebounds after stabilizing support; and from a medium to long-term perspective, a strategy of gradually building positions is suitable.

12.27 Master's Segment Pre-Planning:

Long Entry Reference: Lightly buy in the 94200-94800 range. Target: 96400-97300

Short Entry Reference: Lightly short at 97300. If it rises to the 97700-98500 range, short directly. Target: 96400-95300

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