Master Discusses Hot Topics:

New Year's Day has arrived, and I wish everyone a Happy New Year! While everyone enjoys making New Year wishes in their social circles, I would like to remind you not to treat your social media as a wishing well; otherwise, you might find yourself making the same wish next New Year's Eve, resulting in "wishing every year, feeling disappointed every year."

Back to the main topic, 2024 is filled with challenges and opportunities for the cryptocurrency market. From the sprint at the peak to the subsequent adjustments, the market has experienced significant fluctuations. The annual closing was below 100k; although the result was a pin bar, it does not mean we have reached a standstill.

A pin bar indicates that the market may experience a wave of downward liquidity grab and recovery. From the annual perspective, I personally hope to see a recovery to around 70k, but this is just an expectation; the specifics will depend on how the market develops. For now, we should focus on the area around 85k and maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook.

Looking at the monthly chart, the bearish close in December can be considered a good result. As I mentioned earlier, the trend of Bitcoin is characterized by a fluctuating pattern. The performance in December was as expected, showing a complex oscillating market.

The bearish close on the monthly chart formed the high and low points for December, creating a liquidity gap with prices between 90k and 73.7k. It is likely that the December low will be targeted for liquidity grab, and after that, the next step for the market will depend on how much liquidity can be obtained. Therefore, I personally still favor the support around 85k, with the goal of continuing to reach new highs, so I anticipate a pattern of falling first and then rising.

In the short term, the price of Bitcoin may oscillate around 95k, and the range of fluctuations may even increase. However, from an overall trend perspective, the trend has not changed. Recent trading volumes and price fluctuations have led many retail investors to hold a pessimistic view of the market at the beginning of 2025.

The main reason is that liquidity is constrained by the Federal Reserve's policies, and the dollar is currently at a high point for 2023 and 2024, even approaching the highs of 2022. Therefore, unless the Federal Reserve changes its stance, the market's momentum in the short term will largely come from market sentiment.

The biggest source of market sentiment, without a doubt, is the U.S. election. The election can be likened to the first wave of the market, the transition is the second wave, and the subsequent actions to fulfill promises to the cryptocurrency industry will be the third wave.

Currently, we are at the end of the first wave, and it would be good if sentiment can remain stable; unless there is new positive information, oscillation is likely to be the most probable outcome. Starting next week, there will be only two weeks left until the transition, and we can expect to see some market movements.

As for Bitcoin right now, the turnover rate remains high, and early profit-takers have started to reduce their holdings in recent days. However, from a sentiment perspective, the overall market is still stable, with no signs of panic.

In terms of support, 95k remains an important support level, but a large amount of chips has begun to accumulate around 93.8k, so adjustments to the support level may not be seen until next week.

My personal view is that if the market rises well before next Monday, I might consider selling Bitcoin around 95k and then wait to buy back during a pullback. If the market continues to decline, then 89k might be my third opportunity to buy in at a mid-term level.

However, in the short term, the price may not reach 89k; in any case, we are currently in a period of oscillation and consolidation. The future direction remains full of uncertainties, and no one can predict it. But as the ancients said, heroes emerge in chaotic times.

In such a complex and ever-changing market, those who can remain calm amidst the turmoil will surely be the ones who laugh last. Let us wait patiently, cherish the moment, and remember that the opportunities of 2025 will always belong to those who are prepared.

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Levels Reference:

First Resistance Level: 94200

Second Resistance Level: 95300

Support Levels Reference:

First Support Level: 93100

Second Support Level: 92200

Today's Suggestions:

In the short term, Bitcoin lacks further driving factors for an upward push, so we can pay attention to whether a slow bottoming formation will occur, and based on that, look for ultra-short-term rebound opportunities. The current price is in the transaction range of 93~94K; if it continues to maintain within this range, we can hold a rebound viewpoint.

If the first resistance level is broken, we need to observe whether the price can stabilize above 94K and the 120-day moving average. If it can, we can attempt ultra-short-term rebound operations.

Currently, we are in a transaction range and forming a bottom, and a breakout of resistance is expected. If there is a rebound to the upside, it may continue to rise. However, due to strong resistance in the transaction range, it is advisable to consider bullish operations only after gradually breaking through resistance.

After the breakout, we will be in an oscillation range, observing whether there are signs of bottom formation while maintaining a rebound viewpoint. Additionally, the U.S. stock market will be closed tonight, so there may be smaller fluctuations; it is recommended to maintain operations within the oscillation range and pay attention to entry opportunities at the lower edge of the box.

1.1 Master’s Wave Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Enter light long positions near 93100; if there is a pullback to the 92200-91500 range, go long directly. Target: 94200-95300

Short Entry Reference: Not currently applicable

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