Some Thoughts on Recent AI Coins
Big trends, small trends, false trends—these are worth careful consideration; otherwise, not only will you miss the big trends, but you may also get trapped in small trends and deceived by false trends.
My personal thoughts may not be correct, and the assets I mention may have already multiplied several times or even dozens of times, so it does not mean you should buy them—what I invest in has never depended on whether others buy or not; I only care about what the asset is.
1. About the Upper Limit: If you think AI + crypto won't reach 10 billion, then there's no need to pay much attention to AI.
Regarding the upper limit of "which one reaches 10 billion first," purely on-chain—this is the main criterion for defining the AI agent summer.
If you think it’s necessary to see whether it gets listed on Binance, then it’s not summer. During DeFi, we didn’t need to care about being listed on Binance; the same goes for NFTs. If the leading meme coins in history didn’t have Binance, they could still reach 50 billion or 100 billion.
So, if you think it’s hard for any of these to have a 10 billion upper limit, I suggest you stop gambling and just hold onto BTC; it won’t be too bad.
Identifying big trends means recognizing which coins have the potential for a 10 billion upper limit; this should be the simplest logic in the crypto space.
You ask how to define DeFi summer; I don’t need to get too tangled up in that. I just need to know that whether it’s DeFi, NFTs, or memes, if their leading assets can’t break 10 billion, 20 billion, or 30 billion, then it’s not summer.
For my capital size, whether something is a bit expensive or a bit cheap doesn’t matter. Most of the time, holding BTC and making big swings in cycles is just fine. But if it’s a trend with huge potential, I should participate decisively.
AI + crypto will reach 10 billion, 20 billion, 50 billion, or even higher—if it’s higher, I might lack the imagination and courage to know.
Note: The market is changing, and these "extremely optimistic expectations" may change at any time due to market fluctuations—what’s important is not the accuracy of predicting the future, but whether the basis for optimism is sufficient. (When I talk about these basic theories, a sense of fatigue occurs; this fatigue is one of the reasons I have rarely output my thoughts in the past year.)
Reasons for the Rise of AI + Crypto:
- Unlike the "pure expectation + community FOMO" of memes, agents will continue to iterate, and increasingly powerful things will emerge.
One extremely foolish definition in my eyes is: many people think that "web2 AI agents are awesome" and "web3 AI agents are stupid." This distinction reflects a lack of understanding of the power of economic incentives; in fact, there’s no need to differentiate. The wealth effect of web3 will attract developers, which is common sense. Where there is a wealth effect, are you still worried about technology not keeping up? There’s no need to make such distinctions; this kind of differentiation merely looks at the present while ignoring potential.
As for the discussion of whether AI needs crypto, from both funding and decentralized trust perspectives, it is very necessary. If you don’t understand, there’s no need to elaborate; just do some research.
- The summer of AI agents is vastly different from previous imagined upper limits and implementation speeds.
DeFi summer is the logic of decentralized finance in the crypto space, deconstructing traditional finance; the imagination is vast, but the implementation is much slower than expected.
NFT summer is a bubble of small images created by speculation and low liquidity in the crypto space. When returning to the essence, "changing avatars" did not generate native demand, and what was previously debunked is hard to revive.
Meme summer is the speculation in the crypto space being squeezed by VC coins, combined with the narrative economics perspective of dissemination and economic conversion. However, with the popularity of pump and dump schemes, internal funding may also begin to decrease; after all, the focus has shifted from old-school calls to TikTok videos, along with celebrities and archaeology, making it increasingly difficult to find angles. When enthusiasm cools, the love that once felt like "mountains without ridges and earth merging" will turn into the blandness of daily life.
But what about AI agents? Whether it’s the trillion-dollar industry prospects of web2 AI or the on-chain integration of web3 AI, there is enormous space. Currently, the entire market cap of AI in the crypto space is only about 10 billion; during DeFi summer, several leading protocols reached 10 billion, and during NFT summer, the nested dolls, even the GameFi period where "running cured my depression" and "AXS defeated Honor of Kings," have not yet appeared.
The key point is that AI agents will increasingly emerge that are powerful beyond belief.
For example, AIXBT, a newly launched agent that analyzes opportunities in the crypto space 24/7, has already captured the user mindset, surpassing the most popular KOLs in the crypto space. I believe this trend will only accelerate, not decelerate, following the snowball logic, with more specifics to be discussed later.
2. The Main Line and Assets in AI and Speculation
The crypto space is a haven for speculation, so the hype logic that has appeared in other tracks in the past will still apply, such as the competition among leaders, the emergence of new concepts and narratives, and building chains, etc.
Therefore, the best strategy is to capture the best assets in the main line while remaining sensitive to new opportunities. If you have a talent for speculation, you can also participate early—here, the core logic is simply to hold SOL during its rise, which is the main theme. You can participate in the memes, but sell them in time and switch back to SOL; this way, you can better benefit from the entire track.
There’s a lot to write if this part is expanded, but I’ll just briefly mention some immature thoughts:
Choose a framework, similar to selecting a public chain. Based on current developments, Virtual AI, 16z, and Swarms are three winners with significant attention and space.
When selecting a framework, mainly look at the quality and development space of agents in the ecosystem—this depends on the capabilities and funding of the framework project parties. Currently, Virtual is far ahead: team, revenue, ecosystem, leading agents. Swarms is the latest, just released its white paper, and we’ll see which of the two will produce leading agents.
For infrastructure, pay attention to Cookie and Fosai.
These assets are actually well-known; the on-chain market is too hot right now. For example, a buzz product without any real product can reach an 80 million dollar market cap just based on a resume; the on-chain bull market is here.
However, amidst the FOMO, focus on whether the protocol is profitable, the capabilities and vision of the founding team, and the future of the ecosystem.
As for individual agents, AIXBT is already worth several hundred million. Some think it’s undervalued, while others think it’s overvalued, but I still believe it may be undervalued.
According to OpenAI's grading, agents are roughly classified as follows:
- Chatbots with conversational abilities;
- Reasoners, capable of human-level problem-solving;
- Agents, systems that can take action;
- Innovators, capable of assisting in inventions;
- Organizations, possessing organizational management capabilities and able to operate independently.
Many people understand AIXBT as level 1, but in reality, it can combine with level 3, though it’s still not entirely accurate.
From the perspective of the crypto space, attention is wealth, and AIXBT's attention snowball will continue to grow, getting bigger and faster. It just needs to keep going in the current direction, getting better and better. In the future, with millions of followers, its attention will be "the most worth paying attention to" in the blockchain field. How much influence is worth in the crypto space? That’s subjective.
I won’t elaborate further; just keep an eye on it and evaluate it yourself. Just a casual chat.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
