The first quarter of 2025 has begun, and market sentiment is slowly emerging from the gloom of the recent downturn. The voices shouting that the bull market is over are gradually fading away. However, most retail investors who are stuck in their positions are still complaining, calling the coins they bought garbage. There are also some short-term traders who are relieved that they cleared their positions before the big drop and managed to buy relatively cheap chips after the decline. In fact, investors who trade short-term during a bull market will find their costs increasing over time, and when it finally comes to clearing positions, their returns may not be as good as those of long-term investors. The market is ever-changing, especially during a bull market when coin prices fluctuate significantly. Some people may be stuck for a long time, but if a coin explodes, they could profit more than 99% of short-term traders. Those who only play short-term without long-term positions during the bull market cycle may end up with returns that are less than half of those of long-term investors. As mentioned earlier, because the trading costs for short-term trading increase during a bull market cycle, if one makes a mistake or gets stuck due to a significant pullback, short-term trading may turn into medium or long-term trading.

During this time, I also browsed the social media of various platforms and found that as long as users made money in 2024, the annual reports of major platforms showed they outperformed 90% of investors in the market. However, if you look at the trend of BTC in 2024, you will understand. Bitcoin has risen so much, yet most traders have not made a profit, indicating that currently, 90% of retail investors are heavily invested or fully leveraged in altcoins, with only a small portion holding Bitcoin to this day. This is also a major reason why this bull market is not as explosive as the previous one. In the last bull market, Bitcoin, Ethereum, BNB, and various metaverse concept coins and MEME coins surged wildly, rising to a level that inspired awe. In contrast, in this bull market, most coins had already changed hands in the primary market before being listed. Because the project parties promoted well, they made everyone aware of how to use wallets and participate in the primary market, and many project parties packaged themselves as retail investors, posting their early trading records of coins listed on exchanges on social media, claiming they made many times their investment. Although there are indeed some lucky individuals who made money, very few retail investors who participated in the primary market actually profited. When many people realize this too late, they find that their principal has dwindled to almost nothing. So they turn to exchanges to leverage and bet on altcoins for several times or even ten times the increase, but most end up failing just before dawn. Some lucky friends may have made the right directional bets but will also encounter automatic liquidation by the platform, as the depth of altcoin contracts is vastly inferior to that of mainstream or popular coins. If no one is on the opposite side of your trade, your profits will be automatically liquidated by the platform, unless you hold the actual coins, which allows you to steadily gain complete profits from a coin from start to finish.

Having said all this, let's take a look at the recent data for BTC and ETH on exchanges.

From the data, we can see that in the past month, the number of Bitcoin flowing out of exchanges reached 82,237 coins, with 35,236 coins flowing out in the past week. This indicates that after Bitcoin dropped to a recent low, the market makers began to accelerate their accumulation, suggesting that institutions and whales still have a positive outlook on Bitcoin's future performance. A former Barclays executive also stated this morning that Bitcoin may have completed its corrective wave, and in the first quarter, it could rise to a historical high of $125,000. Therefore, it is very much worth looking forward to how high Bitcoin's price can reach in the future.

In contrast, Ethereum saw an inflow of 325,685 coins into exchanges last week, but 28,083 coins flowed out in the past week. However, Ethereum's price has increased more than Bitcoin's in the last two weeks. This indicates that there are institutions or large holders buying up Ethereum; otherwise, Ethereum would not have outperformed Bitcoin in the past half month. This also indirectly suggests that the altcoin season has begun, as only with a strong Ethereum can 90% of altcoins in the market hope to surge. Old Dog mentioned earlier that Ethereum will lead the mainstream market, and the altcoin season has arrived, so let's wait and see how Ethereum performs in the future.

Personally, I am very optimistic about the market in the first quarter of 2025. This month, Trump officially takes office, and after taking office, he will certainly fulfill the previously favorable policies for the crypto market. A large amount of capital will continue to flow in. Ethereum is gradually gaining momentum, so we can expect to see a crazy mode in the altcoin market in the first quarter, which may be the stage where the peak bull market begins to end.

During the peak bull market, what we need to do is to wait patiently. In a bull market cycle, anything is possible. Don't be distracted by the recently surging coins; as long as the coins you buy are not particularly garbage, there will definitely be opportunities ahead.

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