The pain brought by the body is real, while other sufferings stem from values and cognition. The essence of life is loneliness; one must learn to reconcile with oneself, accept the disappointments in life, and cherish the self that has experienced tribulations and tasted the myriad flavors of life!
As usual, let's first review the recent market trends. After the New Year, there were some matters to attend to, so I haven't updated the articles for a few days. The last update was last Tuesday. In terms of market trends, after testing the bottom around 91,500 last week, the market stopped falling and began to rise, and today in the morning session, it completed another surge, once approaching the 100,000 mark. As of now, the price is around 99,700.
Last week, we attempted to short but failed; the market's rise led to stop-loss exits for short positions. Currently, the market is again near 100,000, mainly influenced by expectations for the upcoming events, specifically that the special manager will take over the reins again on the 20th. It is well-known that he has a positive attitude towards the crypto market, embracing it actively. Therefore, as we entered January, the market began to show some speculative expectations.
Looking at the K-line, Bitcoin has been closing positively for several days, forming a structure of oscillating upward. However, two points need attention: first, the resistance at the previous rebound high of 100,000; second, the current situation where the price is rising on lower volume. As mentioned earlier, due to the favorable expectations surrounding the special manager, the market is reacting in advance, which is quite normal. However, it can be seen that the market's capital attitude towards further upward movement is not as aggressive, with no mad influx of funds.
Given the current situation, a normal trend would suggest that the possibility of forming a strong directional choice in a short time is low. It is quite normal to continue forming a new oscillation area within this week. A brief breakout above 100,000 could create a strong illusion in the market, followed by continued oscillation. After all, without a strong influx of market capital, it is unrealistic to maintain a high rise in the market. Therefore, this week, we should maintain a broad oscillation area and wait for changes in timing.
On the technical indicators, with today's price surge, it has once again risen above all moving averages. The moving averages show a certain golden cross, but they are also more tightly bound. The indicators suggest that the bulls are currently stronger, but facing volume issues, I am not overly optimistic. On the four-hour cycle, although the bulls are strong, there is a certain divergence in the market. After the U.S. stock market opens tonight, there may be some changes in the market. If it rises first, opportunities to short can be sought, and if there is a pullback, one can consider going long, maintaining an oscillating view.
In terms of operations, the current support is around 98,000, followed by 97,000. The upper resistance is currently at the 100,000 mark. I personally believe that if it rises first, it may break through briefly. For short operations, this position is not suitable; around 101,500 can be considered, depending on the evening market.
Ethereum can only be said to be underperforming again. It didn't drop much before, and it hasn't risen much when Bitcoin surged, remaining lukewarm. This has also affected the performance of the secondary altcoin market, with a lack of profit-making effects, making it even harder to stimulate capital entry. I don't know when Ethereum will truly become strong. After all, for more retail investors in the market, Ethereum leading the altcoins to rise together is the best scenario. With Bitcoin's price so high, how many people can hold much of it? So let's wait for Ethereum to catch up.
For short-term Ethereum operations, the support is at 3,600, followed by 3,480, and a short can be considered around 3,750.
As for altcoins, the main focus is on on-chain activity. I suggest interested friends to learn more about on-chain, especially AI, which is incredibly hot right now. There are only things you can't think of, not things you dare not think of. Perhaps in this round of market, on-chain has become the leader, and it would be a pity to miss out!
【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks yourself. The article is subject to review and publication, and market changes in real-time may lead to delayed information. Specific operations should follow real-time strategies.】
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