A person's life is very much like walking in the fog; from a distance, it appears to be a hazy blur, making it difficult to discern direction and fortune. However, when we muster the courage to set aside our fears and doubts and take one step at a time, we will find that with each step, we can see the next path a little more clearly, and we can find our direction!

Let's first briefly review the market and operations. In summary, the market's movement has been as expected, recently showing a trend of rising and then falling back. We can see that the analysis we provided on Monday clearly indicated our judgment of the market, first breaking through 100,000 with a surge, followed by a retreat back into a consolidation area. The reasoning is simple: as mentioned before, due to the positive expectations surrounding the appointment of the new head of the January Special Committee, the market tends to react in advance, leading to a price increase. This is a common "buy the expectation" trend in financial markets. However, the accompanying trading volume is not ideal, indicating that the bullish sentiment in the market is not particularly strong, and there are significant divergences above the 100,000 mark. Therefore, in general, when a market surge lacks accompanying volume, it is easy for a pullback to occur.

Additionally, the market's pullback is also influenced by the Federal Reserve. After the U.S. released some economic data yesterday, the market significantly pushed back the expectation for the Fed's first interest rate cut to June or July of this year. This means that not only will there be no rate cut in January, but it is also expected that there will be no cut in the March rate meeting. Inflation expectations and Fed rate expectations are being readjusted, which is major bad news for the market. As a result, U.S. stocks fell, and the cryptocurrency market followed suit, with the price currently dipping to around 96,000.

In terms of operations, since we correctly judged the market trend, we continue to focus on short positions. We participated in short positions above 101,500 and set up positions above 3,700 for Ethereum, successfully profiting from the market's decline!

Now, regarding the technical aspect, on the daily chart, a large bearish candlestick closed yesterday, which engulfed the gains of the previous day's bullish candlestick. Currently, the bearish candlestick shows continuation, making today's closing particularly critical from a daily perspective. On the news front, tonight during U.S. trading hours, the ADP employment data will be released, and it is unlikely that there will be significant fluctuations during the day. The market will still be influenced by U.S. stocks. Additionally, from a technical perspective, if there is a continuation of bearish candlesticks following yesterday's large bearish candlestick, it will strengthen the bearish sentiment in the market, making further declines more necessary. At the same time, various indicator lines are crossing significantly, and today's market trend may form a direction for the short term. It is important to note that the technical pattern on the chart suggests a potential head and shoulders formation, so if there is a further decline in the short term, it should not come as a surprise.

On the four-hour level, another door-opening market has appeared. Recently, this type of market has been somewhat bullish, and it can be observed that there is volume accompanying the decline. Previously, we noted that the rise did not come with volume, which is quite interesting and reinforces the expectation of a further decline. Currently, the market remains weak, with the rebound lacking strength, operating below various moving averages, which does not signal a stop in the decline. Based on the current situation, a short-term rebound does not seem necessary.

In terms of operations, the focus is on the U.S. market. If a rebound occurs, we will still primarily focus on short positions. Currently, we continue to hold our short positions, and there may be an opportunity to set up shorts around 97,500 during the day, with support around 94,000 and then 91,000.

Ethereum is really quite frustrating; it has now dropped to around 3,340. Given this momentum, it seems likely to continue falling. It can keep up with the declines but struggles to follow the rises, so our previous decision to short Ethereum seems quite correct. Let's first see if the low point of 3,100 can hold. A rebound around 3,450 could provide an opportunity to set up shorts.

Altcoins are currently experiencing a bifurcation. The liquidity of altcoins on CEX is very poor, and the market collapses when manipulated. Currently, Bitcoin's market cap dominance has reached 60%, creating a bull market for Bitcoin while other coins are struggling significantly. Conversely, on-chain activity is exceptionally vibrant, with various concepts being speculated in the AI sector, attracting funds to participate. Of course, there are both opportunities and risks involved; some can yield thousands of times returns, while others can go to zero, so rational participation is essential!

【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks yourself. The article is subject to review and publication, and market conditions change in real-time, so the information may be outdated. Specific operations should be based on real-time strategies.】

Scan the code to follow our public account.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。