This editorial is from last week’s edition of the Week in Review newsletter. Subscribe to the weekly newsletter to get the editorial the second it’s finished.

Happy New Year! Bitcoin and crypto entered the new year not with a bang, but with something more resembling a whimper. Bitcoin’s price puttered beneath $100K, consolidating if you will. Bitcoin news was a mixed bag. El Salvador continued to buy bitcoin, adding one BTC per day to their strategic bitcoin reserve. The Bitcoin fear and greed index is back up to 74, from a dip down to 65 on December 30, which was the lowest rating since October 15. On the other hand, on Thursday Blackrock’s spot bitcoin ETF had its biggest outflow day since it launched in January of last year for $330.8 million.

In this week’s episode of Token Narratives we discussed predictions for the new year, including price predictions for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. There was also a spirited discussion about privacy coins, taxes, and how governments might handle taxes for fully autonomous AI agents.

Anyway, here are several predictions for 2025, some of them are my own, some from others that I read and agree with:

1. The U.S. reemerges as the crypto hub. Trump will usher in a more cooperative relationship amongst regulators, and in Congress stablecoin legislation will be passed this year. Crypto projects will move back to the U.S. and U.S. crypto conferences will be great again.

2. The L1 trade will still work. L1s like Solana, Sui, and Hyperliquid will do well in 2025. Solana will be the best performer of the top three cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana..

3. Defi rerates. With fee-switches, rehypothecation, and continued volume growth, defi protocols will gain attention and investment.

4. ICO-like token launches. The incoming Trump administration will enable a pivot back to crowdsales and fairer initial distribution events, a welcome change from the VC coins of 2024.

5. AI x Crypto is the hottest narrative of 2025. The short-term hype in AI agents will calm down as people realize these agents are mostly useless, but real AI projects will emerge during this year. It will start a defi summer v2.0, possibly in the summer.

I am very much looking forward to crypto in 2025. Let’s have a great one!

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