In 2025, Bitcoin is highly anticipated to break through $100,000, driven by Trump's return to the presidency and his crypto-friendly policies, although regulatory and market uncertainties remain key challenges.
Written by: Dmytro Spilka
Translated by: Blockchain in Plain Language
The future of Bitcoin in 2025 is filled with expectations, as market giants look towards Trump's return, hoping this event will serve as a significant catalyst for growth in the crypto market throughout the year.
1. Bitcoin Breaks Historical High
After Trump wins the presidential election on November 5, 2024, Bitcoin first breaks the $100,000 milestone. With Trump officially sworn in on January 20, 2025, the excitement in the Bitcoin market is pushed to even higher expectations.
Boosted by Trump's promises of regulatory easing and a strategic Bitcoin reserve plan, market confidence grows exponentially. According to data from FX Street, the cryptocurrency adoption rate among the 18 to 25 age group surged by 683% after the presidential election, making Bitcoin's price ceiling a hot topic of discussion.
2. The Future of Bitcoin: How Will Trump's Second Term Affect the Market?
Can Trump's policies propel Bitcoin to unprecedented new highs? Will the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve become a watershed moment in Bitcoin's development history? Let’s delve into the potential impacts.
1) Establishing a Bitcoin Reserve
During last year's campaign, Trump promised to include all Bitcoin currently held by the U.S. government and any future purchases into a "National Strategic Bitcoin Reserve." He likened this plan to the U.S. oil reserve, emphasizing the need for swift action to accumulate large reserves ahead of competing nations like China.
Trump's plan is not a global first; as early as 2021, El Salvador adopted Bitcoin as a reserve asset and has since accumulated 6,150 Bitcoins, valued at approximately $600 million at current prices.
Although the specific details of Trump's Bitcoin reserve plan remain unclear and its actual implementation is uncertain, there are indications that this plan may reference the "BITCOIN Act" (Boosting Innovation, Technology and Competitiveness Through Optimized Investment Nationwide) proposed by Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis.
According to an analysis by Maxim Manturov, head of investment research at Freedom24, "Under the so-called BITCOIN Act, the U.S. must accumulate 1 million Bitcoins over the next 20 years, which is about 5% of the total supply. The limited Bitcoin supply is expected to drive up its price, and by accumulating Bitcoin now, the U.S. may help offset future growing debt issues."
With Bitcoin's total supply capped at 21 million, this means that 5% of the supply equates to 1.05 million Bitcoins, which, at current valuations, is worth over $100 billion.
2) Supply-Demand Imbalance Will Drive Prices Up
With the enormous demand for Bitcoin ETF funds, this supply-demand imbalance may further push prices higher. Manturov points out that, in this context, market predictions for Bitcoin's price range from $125,000 in 2025 to $2.9 million by 2050.
Whether Trump's policies can come to fruition remains uncertain, but if this plan is implemented, the U.S. could not only become a leader in Bitcoin reserves but also have a profound impact on the future of the crypto market. A historic moment for Bitcoin may be on the horizon.
3. How High Can Bitcoin Go?
The timing of Trump's return to the presidency is particularly critical, as Bitcoin has just completed its fourth "halving event" in 2024. This is a preset mechanism that occurs approximately every four years, halving the Bitcoin rewards miners receive for their computational efforts.
1) Halving Events and Market Upturns
Bitcoin halving events automatically increase the scarcity of newly generated Bitcoins, and historically, this mechanism has typically triggered market rebounds and driven Bitcoin prices to new historical highs.
Thus, expectations for Bitcoin's performance in the first half of 2025 are already very high, and the optimism brought by Trump may further drive Bitcoin adoption.
2) Trump's Price Expectations
According to sources, Trump privately hopes Bitcoin can reach $150,000 early in his presidential term, viewing it as an alternative to the stock market.
Trump's son, Eric Trump, is even more aggressive, stating at the Bitcoin Conference MENA in December that Bitcoin's future price could reach $1 million.
Despite the speculative nature of cryptocurrencies and the volatility of global markets and geopolitics making such predictions fraught with uncertainty, considering investor enthusiasm and the limited supply of Bitcoin, a future price of $1 million for Bitcoin is not unimaginable.
However, in 2025, Bitcoin's price may be closer to Trump's proposed $150,000 prediction. But if market sentiment continues to grow, $150,000 may seem overly conservative.
4. Potential Issues Remain
A key challenge facing the Trump administration is the persistent uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin's future development prospects.
John Prasad, a senior investment expert at Mirabaud Group, points out that Bitcoin's future is filled with both potential and uncertainty. He cites inflationary pressures, liquidity issues, global regulatory outlooks, and the controversy surrounding its use as a store of value as reasons why Bitcoin's growth is not yet guaranteed.
Chris Lehmann, Washington bureau chief for National Review, believes that the rising acceptance of cryptocurrencies in the U.S. may lead to a surge in scams and "pump and dump" schemes, which are precisely the targets that former SEC Chairman Gary Gensler sought to combat.
Although Gensler's departure was welcomed by the crypto community, a loose regulatory framework could undermine the credibility of the entire crypto market.
5. Trump's Transformative Impact
There is no doubt that Trump's new administration will become one of the most significant forces affecting the cryptocurrency ecosystem since Bitcoin's inception in 2009.
Trump's commitment to establishing a Bitcoin reserve and implementing crypto-friendly policies is driving market expectations for 2025 to become a landmark year for the crypto market. Many speculative investors have already taken for granted that a strong rise in Bitcoin prices is almost a certainty.
However, the speculative nature of the industry leaves uncertainty lingering, and in an open regulatory environment, bad actors may further damage the credibility of cryptocurrencies.
Trump will undoubtedly play an important role in the future of Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem, but how his second term will affect this market remains filled with many unknowns.
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