Macroeconomic Interpretation: On January 21, 2025, Trump was sworn in as the 47th President of the United States in the Rotunda of the Capitol in Washington, D.C., delivering an inaugural speech centered on "America First" and "returning to common sense." This speech not only marked the beginning of Trump's new policies but also attracted widespread attention in the financial markets, particularly having a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market. We will interpret Trump's inaugural speech and analyze its implications for the crypto market, especially the phenomenon of BTC's price retreat from $11,000.
Trump's inaugural speech emphasized a policy orientation of "America First," further interpreting it as a "return to common sense," calling for a return to simple, direct, and effective policy approaches. He proposed a series of executive orders to be prioritized, covering various aspects such as borders, society, energy, and industry, with domestic and economic issues taking precedence over foreign issues. Trump stated that he would work to end government attempts to influence race and gender through social engineering policies, establishing a performance-based society regardless of skin color. Economically, he promised to tackle record inflation, instructing cabinet members to quickly reduce costs and prices, and to leverage America's energy advantages to develop manufacturing and promote oil and gas exports.
Trump's policy vision brings numerous potential impacts to the crypto market. Firstly, the regulatory reforms and tax incentives he proposed could improve the policy environment for the crypto industry, attracting more innovative companies to settle in the U.S. and enhancing the country's competitiveness in the global crypto market. If the U.S. government formally includes Bitcoin in its national reserve assets, it would directly boost market demand and strengthen investors' long-term confidence in Bitcoin's value. However, these policies face a series of challenges during the legislative and execution processes, such as partisan divisions within Congress and overlapping functions of regulatory agencies, which may lead to slow legislative progress and inconsistent policy implementation.
It is noteworthy that, on the eve of Trump's inauguration, the Bitcoin market had already experienced a significant upward trend, with Bitcoin astonishingly breaking through the $11,000 mark for the first time. However, following Trump's inaugural speech, Bitcoin's price retreated to around $100,000. The reasons behind this phenomenon are complex and varied, encompassing changes in market sentiment and reflecting investors' adjustments to their expectations regarding Trump's policies.
On one hand, at the beginning of Trump's presidency, the market still held expectations for favorable cryptocurrency policies he was about to implement. Investors hoped that Trump would quickly fulfill his promises, such as issuing executive orders to create a Bitcoin reserve and ensuring that the crypto industry could access banking services. If these policies were implemented, they could bring new vitality to the Bitcoin market. However, as the inaugural speech concluded, the market did not immediately see the realization of these policies, which dampened investor sentiment, leading some funds to take profits and causing Bitcoin's price to decline.
On the other hand, the Federal Reserve's policy direction also significantly impacted Bitcoin's price. On the eve of Trump's inauguration, although the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision involved another rate cut, it indicated that only two rate cuts would occur next year, which became a catalyst for Bitcoin's correction. Additionally, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell explicitly stated that the Fed had no intention of holding Bitcoin, which also somewhat suppressed investment sentiment in the cryptocurrency market. After experiencing a prior surge, investors needed time and space to digest profits and reassess market risks, which also contributed to Bitcoin's price retreat.
Furthermore, global economic conditions and geopolitical factors also influenced Bitcoin's price. Before Trump's inauguration, issues such as slowing global economic growth and high debt levels prompted capital to shift towards emerging fields like the crypto market. However, as Trump's inaugural speech concluded, market expectations regarding the effectiveness of his policies began to diverge, with some investors choosing to exit the crypto market in favor of more stable investment channels. At the same time, geopolitical uncertainties may also prompt investors to seek more stable assets that are not influenced by the policies of a single country, which somewhat undermines Bitcoin's safe-haven attributes.
Trump's inaugural speech had a significant impact on the crypto market, with Bitcoin's price initially rising and then falling, reflecting this phenomenon directly as it retreated from $11,000. Although Trump's policy vision brought many potential benefits to the crypto market, these policies face numerous challenges in the legislative and execution processes. Additionally, global economic conditions and geopolitical factors also affect Bitcoin's price. Therefore, when participating in crypto market trading, it is essential to closely monitor policy developments, global economic conditions, and changes in geopolitical factors to formulate reasonable investment strategies.
BTC Analysis:
Recently, BTC experienced significant volatility around Trump's inauguration, rising from $99,500 to $110,000, and then falling back to around $100,100, showing an overall pattern of "buy the rumor, sell the fact," with expectations and negative realizations driving the trend.
Currently, since the previous round of increase from $88,900, the Coinank Super Trend indicator shows that BTC has been in a bullish trend. It has recently tested the trend support line near the $100,000 mark multiple times, where large buy orders have accumulated, which can be seen as short-term support. This level is crucial for determining the future direction of the market; if it holds, the bullish trend will be maintained, with short-term resistance levels at around $107,000 and $110,000, followed by historical highs. If it breaks below $100,000, the support levels to watch are $95,000 and the previous significant support around $90,000.
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