Institutional investors could boost the prices of bitcoin and ether while potentially moderating the intensity of any upcoming altcoin season, according to Standard Chartered Global Head of Digital Assets Research Geoff Kendrick.
"The dominance of institutional inflows to ETFs is likely to support bitcoin and ether performance; we see their prices reaching the $200,000 and $10,000 levels by end-2025, respectively," he said in an email. "We expect institutional flows into bitcoin in 2025 to exceed 2024 levels, with fresh capital likely to come from long-only funds classified as ‘pension funds.'"
Following this, capital might flow into altcoins but it could be weaker than normal, he argued. "An altcoin light season will begin, and I say light because institutional flows will drive bitcoin and ether, partly offsetting rotation into alts," Kendrick noted.
However, the launch of the Official Trump (TRUMP) memecoin at the weekend could be a catalyst that might drive a new altcoin season, according to QCP Capital analysts. "The global reach and speed at which TRUMP surged signal a paradigm shift in capital formation as crypto becomes increasingly mainstream, and this be the catalyst that drives the anticipated altcoin season," the analysts said.
The launch on Wednesday of Calamos buffered spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has introduced another layer of institutional influence on the crypto market. These ETFs employ options-based strategies to limit downside risk while also capping upside potential.
Cryptocurrency derivatives trader Gordon Grant shed light on how these ETFs are impacting bitcoin's options market. "There's an interesting kink with the end-of-January expiry, elevated above the Feb. 7 and Feb. 28 expiries, in particularly on the calls side, which could be in part due to an increase in February puts," Grant told The Block.
He explained that the hedging and structuring activities associated with these ETFs are influencing bitcoin options markets, creating unique patterns in open interest by depressing the call skew.
"Because of the new buffered ETFs being launched by Calamos, collaring can be expected to show up in options open interest, and as long as it is tied to new ETF creations, it is not on net effect bearish, but it can depress the call skew depending on the point in the term structure," Grant added.
While bitcoin's options market shows some caution with an increased put-call skew, Calamos Head of ETFs Matt Kaufman remains optimistic about the digital asset's future as an investment asset. He highlighted the growing acceptance of bitcoin, while acknowledging concerns about its volatility.
"Bitcoin’s acceptance as an investible asset is growing, yet concerns about its volatility remain," Kaufman said. "Our new suite of downside protected Bitcoin ETFs will offer a menu of straightforward solutions designed to provide true risk management for this unique asset where investors can select their preferred level of protection and related upside capture based on their specific circumstances.”
The price of bitcoin traded at around $101,626 at publication time, according to The Block's BTC price data, down around 3.8% over the past 24 hours.
Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.
© 2024 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
