Arthur Hayes, former CEO of crypto exchange Bitmex, has issued a stark warning about the near-term trajectory of bitcoin, predicting a substantial correction before a massive rally later in 2025. In his latest essay, The Ugly, published earlier this week, Hayes expressed concerns that the crypto market is showing signs reminiscent of late 2021, just before a major downturn.

“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme,” he shared, elaborating:

I don’t believe this bull cycle is over; however, on a forward-looking probabilistic basis, I think we are more likely to go down to $70,000 to $75,000 bitcoin and then rise to $250k by the end of the year than to continue girding higher with no material pullback.

He attributes this potential decline to a tightening global liquidity environment, with central banks in the U.S., China, and Japan all pulling back on money creation. While he remains long-term bullish, he believes a correction is necessary before the next leg up.

To prepare for this possible downturn, Hayes revealed that his fund, Maelstrom, has taken a more defensive stance while reducing exposure to high-risk altcoins. “We are still bigly net long, but if my feeling is correct, then we will be positioned with copious amounts of dry powder ready to buy the dip on bitcoin and a mega dip on many quality shitcoins.”

He warns that if the pullback materializes, it could be severe given the high levels of market optimism, describing:

A pullback of this magnitude would be ugly because the current level of bullishness is so high.

Hayes also emphasized bitcoin’s complex relationship with broader financial markets, cautioning that while it tends to diverge from traditional assets in the long run, it remains sensitive to macroeconomic conditions. “In the long term, bitcoin is uncorrelated with stock prices, but it can be very correlated in the short term,” he said.

Reflecting on over a decade of trading experience, Hayes explained why he expects a significant correction before a sustained bull run. “Why do I believe in a 30% correction for bitcoin? I’ve been trading this market for over ten years and experienced three bull cycles. These types of pullbacks occur often throughout the bull market, given how volatile bitcoin is.”

He suggests that once financial stress forces the U.S. Federal Reserve to shift toward looser monetary policy—cutting interest rates and resuming quantitative easing—crypto markets will surge again. Until then, he believes patience and strategic positioning will be key. Hayes also noted the recent market panic over China’s Deepseek AI breakthrough as a sign that investors are beginning to question their bullish assumptions, which could accelerate the coming downturn. Despite his near-term caution, he remains confident that bitcoin will eventually reach new highs, provided traders can withstand the expected turbulence.

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