Today at 21:30 Beijing time, the U.S. December PCE data will be released, especially the core PCE, which is the standard the Federal Reserve uses to view inflation. When the Federal Reserve consistently mentions 2%, it refers to the core PCE (year-on-year) reaching 2%. Therefore, the core PCE data is still very important, as it represents the trend of inflation in the U.S. The lower the core PCE number, the more favorable it is for the market, as it may increase the chances of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates.
This is the premise, but in reality, the Federal Reserve needs to consider inflation, labor, and the economy as a whole. A single month's inflation data may not necessarily change the Federal Reserve's decision. Moreover, if the Federal Reserve is to increase the frequency of rate cuts, it is likely to happen after March. Therefore, this inflation data, rationally speaking, is not very significant.
After all, this is just data without interpretation, unlike Powell's speeches which can have unexpected events. However, the market may not be rational, so the core PCE data will still affect the price trend of #BTC in the short term, especially since today is Friday, leading into a weekend with poor liquidity. If the sentiment today is not good, it is likely to drag down the sentiment over the weekend.
Returning to the data itself, last month's core PCE data was 2.8%, with market expectations also at 2.8%, and the Cleveland Fed's expectation was also 2.8% (2.83%). The core PCE is predicted through core CPI and PPI, and the PPI data for December was good, so it is possible that the actual core PCE value will be less than or equal to expectations.
Less than 2.8%: favorable, the market is likely to respond positively.
Equal to 2.8%: not considered negative, within market expectations, the market may also respond positively, as inflation has not increased.
Greater than 2.8%: exceeds market expectations, the market may respond negatively.
But as mentioned earlier, these are short-term data points and will not have a long-term impact on investor sentiment. Additionally, besides the core PCE data, other factors such as the month-on-month core PCE, labor costs, etc., also play a role, but if the fluctuations are small, the impact will be low. If the fluctuations are large, it may also affect the market. Of course, the core PCE (year-on-year) still has the greatest influence.
This post is sponsored by @ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With ApeX
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