Interpreting Tether's financial report from different perspectives. Before elaborating on my viewpoint, I want to clarify that this perspective is not intended to short USDT, nor do I believe Tether is at risk of a collapse, or even think this perspective is likely to occur; it is merely a discussion of the viewpoint itself.
In fact, during the third quarter of 2024, my neighbor, who is a large holder of Fil, discussed the issue of Tether's reserves with me. His viewpoint is that while USDT has a strong ability to attract capital, as long as it doesn't act recklessly, it won't fail. However, Tether's low-risk redemption capability actually has a gap that cannot be covered by income.
By the time we reached the fourth quarter of 2024, we could still see in Tether's financial report that the total reserves of Tether tokens in circulation amounted to $143,704,755,547. The total liabilities of the company issuing Tether tokens were $136,617,485,006.
Tether's holdings in U.S. Treasury bonds, both directly and indirectly, reached $113 billion, which is a gap of $23.6 billion compared to the total liabilities. Of course, this $23.6 billion is not without collateral; these collateral assets are:
A. $14,270,773 in other corporate bonds
B. $5,318,875,241 in precious metals
C. $7,857,529,277 in #BTC reserves
D. $3,984,793,433 in investments
E. $8,194,007,406 in secured loans
The total is $25,369,476,130, which indeed exceeds $23.6 billion. However, the prices of these non-U.S. Treasury collateral assets may not be stable. If extreme market conditions arise, the funds from A to E may not be redeemable in a timely manner. Of course, I also mentioned that this is not too big of an issue; the coverage of U.S. Treasury bonds has already reached 82.72%, meaning that nearly 83% of users' funds are safe. Although the remaining funds may not be 100% redeemable, if the other portion can ensure redemption at above half price, it can still cover 94% of users' amounts.
Moreover, I believe that not all users will demand redemption at the same time, so as long as no more than 83% of users request redemption, it will not cause issues for Tether's asset allocation. The main discussion of this viewpoint is that although the holdings in U.S. Treasury bonds have reached a historical high, Tether still needs to purchase more U.S. Treasury bonds or precious metals to ensure its risk resistance.
Once again, this is just a viewpoint; Tether has no issues and there are no expectations of a collapse. Please do not let your imagination run wild; I will not be responsible for any losses caused by such thoughts.
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