U.S. President Donald Trump’s steep tariff hikes against his country’s three biggest trading partners may be the biggest macroeconomic risk in 2025 yet, a former researcher with Binance China has asserted. In a recently published op-ed, the researcher, identified only as Jinze, said that while the hike initially seemed unlikely, the imposition of higher tariffs on Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese goods has put all four countries on a lose-lose path.

As widely reported by several media outlets, including Bitcoin.com News, the Trump administration increased tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods by 25%, while Chinese goods face a 10% hike. The U.S. government has justified these increases, stating they are necessary to compel the three countries to do more to curb the flow of drugs into the United States.

However, in a move signaling the start of a costly trade war, Canada, China, and Mexico have all announced retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods. While Trump’s tariff hikes are expected to hit the Canadian, Chinese, and Mexican economies hard, critics argue that U.S. consumers will also be impacted. For instance, the Tax Foundation asserts that tariff hikes will cause prices to rise and result in a reduction of available quantities of goods and services for U.S. businesses and consumers.

In the long term, tariffs often lead to lower income, reduced employment, and decreased economic output—concerns that Trump appeared to acknowledge shortly after announcing the tariff hikes. The former Binance executive also emphasizes this concern and uses the reported 100% tariff on Taiwan-made chips to highlight the potential consequences for U.S. consumers.

“Even with just a 60% tariff increase, the price of an iPhone would increase by $300 — $500. After the tariff hike, companies have two options: raise prices or absorb the costs themselves. If prices go up, it will definitely affect demand; if companies absorb the costs, it will directly impact profits. Terminal products are estimated to see a price increase of 10–30%,” Jinze said.

The former Binance executive added that without “policy hedges,” institutions and individuals heavily invested in risky assets “need to have a strong heart.” He noted that while the tariff threat is essentially a means of pressure, the market may, however, overreact.

Meanwhile, U.S. President Trump expressed confidence that his support base will not be spooked by the effects of his tariff move.

“There may be some temporary, short-term disruptions, and people will understand that,” Trump said.

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