Bitcoin’s Post-Halving Price Action Might Be Evolving

The market reacted unexpectedly to the Trump tariffs despite widespread anticipation. According to Matrixport‘s latest market outlook, investor attention had been focused on Deepseek, so the announcement of the new tariffs caught the market by surprise. Additionally, the lack of retail participation in buying the dip has added to the short-term uncertainty.

Historically, bitcoin‘s price action has followed a four-year cycle with three positive years followed by a year of sharp correction. However, this might be evolving due to the approval of bitcoin ETFs, which have changed the market dynamics. This has seen institutional investors now holding bitcoin longer, reducing volatility. The futures markets has also reflected rising demand with open interest nearly tripling compared to the 2020/2021 bull run.

On the side of bitcoin miners, most miners have shifted toward a treasury strategy, accumulating nearly 100,000 BTC instead of selling post-halving.

With declining profit-taking thresholds and stronger institutional demand, bitcoin’s cycle may extend beyond 2025, defying previous patterns. This suggests a new era of market behavior with bitcoin potentially decoupling from traditional liquidity trends.

The 21-week moving average remains a key indicator of bitcoin’s bull market. If bitcoin stays above this level, bullish momentum is intact. A break below, however, could signal the need for risk management strategies.

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