Master Discusses Hot Topics:

After a few days of rest, the Lantern Festival has passed, and the New Year is also over. Today, it is necessary for the Master to discuss the macro situation first. Since late December last year, the market's focus has clearly shifted towards information, especially the influence of Trump. Apart from Bitcoin, the short-term bull market for other coins has basically ended.

From February to April, in addition to non-farm payrolls, CPI, PPI, and retail data, there are several key dates that may impact market declines: March 5: Federal Reserve Beige Book, March 19: Federal Reserve meeting, April 2: Federal Reserve meeting minutes. These dates generally lead to short-term declines, and traders need to be cautious.

Additionally, there is almost no expectation of interest rate cuts in March, and there will be no Federal Reserve meeting in April. The first interest rate cut of the year may come in May or June. Therefore, the market will enter a period of volatility from February to April, with repeated fluctuations in the short term. This process will be torturous, but it also presents both risks and opportunities.

The tariffs and cryptocurrency regulatory policies involving Trump may gradually take effect during this period, intensifying short-term market volatility. The current trend of Bitcoin may resemble that of August to November 2023, requiring a gradual bottoming out and waiting for interest rate cut expectations to heat up before it can take off again. Thus, Bitcoin may still see adjustments in February and March.

If there are two interest rate cuts in 2025, one in May to June and the other in August to October, it is likely that the current bull market will reach its peak before the second cut. At that time, the market will boast about Bitcoin hitting 150k and 200k, but the Master believes these are just smoke screens and advises against chasing highs.

In July of this year and January of next year, attention should be paid to whether Japan will raise interest rates, as it may impact the global market. For spot traders, the Master suggests gradually reducing positions during these two Federal Reserve interest rate cut windows and waiting for the Federal Reserve to announce new policies in January next year before making decisions.

It is expected that the Federal Reserve may enter a rate hike cycle next year, ending the Bitcoin bull market. The market will enter the next bear market of the halving cycle, lasting about a year. Institutions may release smoke screens suggesting rate cuts in 2026, but the Master does not believe this will happen.

The U.S. economy is currently not that bad and does not require long-term rate cuts. Additionally, according to the patterns of the U.S. stock and cryptocurrency markets, the gains from 2023-2024 have already been significant, and a pullback is imminent.

The core of this bull market is Bitcoin, while Ethereum and most altcoins are merely following. Ethereum has not made money in this wave and has instead caused losses for many. Moreover, Ethereum and altcoins have now entered a bear market, and it is expected that they will consolidate and bottom out in the next 2-3 months.

When the next interest rate cut occurs, there may be several waves of rebounds, but the "madness" of the bull market will no longer exist. Market rules have changed, and strategies need to be adjusted. Apart from Bitcoin, other coins should not be held onto blindly; flexible short-term and medium-term trading strategies are more appropriate.

For altcoins, they will likely only rebound to the upper Bollinger Band on the weekly chart before hitting a peak, with limited operational space for spot trading. Bitcoin is currently at the peak, while altcoins have already fallen to halfway down the mountain. When Bitcoin falls slightly, altcoins may fall significantly; when Bitcoin falls sharply, altcoins may directly break through the floor. Especially after future rate hikes, the risk for altcoins will be greater during institutional sell-offs.

Regarding the next halving cycle, the Master personally expects that Bitcoin's decline next year may be between 68%-77%. If the current peak for Bitcoin is 110.7K, then the bear market low will likely be around 33-27K.

If Bitcoin reaches 150K, the data will need to be adjusted. By the bull market of 2028 and 2029, Bitcoin may rise to 170-200K, which will be an opportunity in the next four years.

The Master has said so much, but what he wants to express more is that whether in the A-share market, U.S. stocks, or the cryptocurrency space, one must maintain a sense of crisis and keep a reserve of funds for safety. Without this reserve, one cannot recover in the event of a black swan. No matter how great the market opportunities are, without money, one can only watch.

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Levels Reference:

First Resistance Level: 97000

Second Resistance Level: 96300

Support Levels Reference:

First Support Level: 95700

Second Support Level: 95000

Today's Suggestions:

Currently, Bitcoin has held an important low point. If it falls below 95k again, one should be wary of disappointment selling. The short-term resistance is at 96.3k. If this resistance level is broken, then the 20-day, 60-day, and 120-day moving averages, as well as the descending trend line nearby, should be set as strong resistance levels.

Before the bulls can start, they need to break through the descending trend line; only after breaking through can a trend reversal be determined. Until the descending trend line is broken, a bearish view can be maintained. The first support level is a short-term support, as it is the previous low point range. Although it may hold in the short term, if it cannot recover 96k, it is likely to break down, so the previous low point of 95k formed yesterday should be set as important support. Generally, if a previously formed low point is broken, further declines are likely to follow.

Set 95k as the short-term low point, considering only from the rebound perspective in the short term. If it breaks below 95k, the downward space will open up to the 92.7-93.3k range.

February 12 Master’s Trading Plan:

Long Entry Reference: Light long positions in the 94600-95000 range, Target: 95700-96300. If it spikes to the 93700-93300 range, go long directly, Target: 95000-95700.

Short Entry Reference: Light short positions in the 96300-97000 range, Target: 95700-95000. If it rebounds to the 98000-98400 range, go short directly, Target: 97000-96300.

This article is exclusively planned and published by Master Chen (public account: Coin God Master Chen), with the same name across the internet. For more real-time investment strategies, solutions, spot trading, short, medium, and long-term contract trading techniques, operational skills, and knowledge about candlesticks, you can join Master Chen for learning and communication. A free experience group for fans has been opened, along with community live broadcasts and other quality experience projects!

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