Master Discusses Hot Topics:

Today is Monday, let's briefly review last week. As soon as the CPI and PPI data from the U.S. was released last week, the market was immediately surprised by the unexpected results, and plans for interest rate cuts have to be postponed.

However, several data points in the PPI showed a month-on-month weakening, especially those that directly affect the PCE data. It is estimated that the PCE data coming out at the end of February may bring some good news to the risk market.

Moreover, Trump is pushing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, putting significant pressure on the market. Additionally, Trump's tariff policy will be postponed until April 1st, and as a result of these actions, the U.S. dollar index is falling while the S&P 500 is rising against the trend.

As for Bitcoin, I personally feel that there won't be a significant drop in the short term; it is more likely to fluctuate within a range, and the opportunity for a major upward wave seems quite difficult to appear. If Bitcoin can reach the previous high of 110k this month, I plan to open a medium-term short position, which currently seems to have no suspense.

Today is also the U.S. Presidents' Day holiday, and the U.S. stock market is closed. The European market may continue to fluctuate. Of course, this may not necessarily be a bad thing for everyone, as it allows for a bit of relaxation. Moreover, there are no major macroeconomic data releases this week, so the macro impact on the market should be limited.

There will be one or two data points worth paying attention to: one is the Federal Reserve's January meeting minutes released early Thursday morning. Although we don't expect much regarding interest rate cuts, it will be interesting to see what the Fed officials say about tariffs.

The other is the University of Michigan's inflation forecast data released on Friday evening. I remember the last time the 4.3% data scared the market quite a bit. If the data is again above 4.3%, the market may react strongly, but if it is below 4.3%, it is likely to provide some emotional comfort to the market.

I remember during last week's Lantern Festival, many friends were discussing with me that the bearish factors have mostly been digested, and a big rise is imminent. Especially those who are bullish on Ethereum, with targets of 4k and 10k. Of course, this is just their personal speculation; in the short term, we should talk about other things only if it can break through 2800 and stabilize.

Currently, there hasn't been a large influx of funds, and being blindly bullish is really quite absurd; don't make yourself feel like an egg hitting a wall. The market will continue to fluctuate and wash out positions in the coming period, so the short-term trend remains bearish.

As for Bitcoin, if it falls below 95750 again, I believe it will be a good opportunity to buy the dip. Currently, both major cryptocurrencies are not performing strongly, so there is no need to pay too much attention to other altcoins for now.

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Levels Reference:

First Resistance Level: 97600

Second Resistance Level: 96800

Support Levels Reference:

First Support Level: 95800

Second Support Level: 95000

Today's Suggestions:

Last week, Bitcoin did not complete the trend reversal and re-entered the range of box fluctuations. In the short term, we can set 96.8K as the current short-term resistance level. Due to the previous long bearish candle, in the weak rebound range, we will continue to maintain a bearish outlook.

If it cannot break through higher highs, as shown in the chart, the price may form a rounded downward pattern, continuing to maintain a bearish trend. When the price breaks through the moving average, we can consider a short-term trend reversal.

Set 95.8k as the short-term support level. If the upward trend line holds, a short-term rebound can be expected. If a long upper shadow forms with the price movement, the possibility of breaking the trend line will also increase.

If the trend line remains unchanged, a super short-term rebound can be expected. However, the resistance above is strong, and it is expected that the price will experience a pullback from the high point, with a high probability of deviating from the trend. Therefore, the rebound should be approached with caution, and a decline to 95K in the short term is also possible.

As the price re-enters the box fluctuation and the high points decrease, the probability of being bearish in the short term increases, and we can continue to look for short positions during rebounds.

2.17 Master’s Wave Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Not currently applicable

Short Entry Reference: Light short in the 97600-98800 range, Target: 96800-95800

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