Donald Trump’s social media activity has significantly declined in market-moving influence compared to his first term, according to JPMorgan research. Of his 126 posts on trade and economics, only 10% caused notable currency fluctuations, a stark contrast to the 60 market-moving tweets per week during the 2018-2019 trade wars.

While Trump’s overall market impact has faded, tariff-related tweets remain influential. Earlier this month, his announcement of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada led to a 2% drop in the peso and a 1% decline in the Canadian dollar.

Similarly, the Chinese yuan reacted to trade threats, falling after Trump’s Fentanyl-related tariff comments but recovering following positive remarks about a conversation with President Xi.

“Among the different topics, the posts on tariffs have been the biggest market movers,” JPMorgan’s note said. Despite this, JPMorgan’s backtesting suggests that trading on Trump’s posts has been largely unprofitable, yielding no more than a 4% gain under ideal conditions.

While crypto markets remain largely unaffected, Trump’s pro-crypto stance and evolving economic policies could soon introduce volatility. If tariffs expand to the bitcoin mining industry or stablecoins, crypto assets could see increased price swings.

While Trump’s market-moving power is waning, his policies remain a wild card for global markets including crypto.

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