Recently, many readers have expressed their helplessness and sighs regarding the current market trends in the comments at the end of the articles.
If I had to describe it in one word, it would be "difficult." I can deeply empathize with this sentiment.
Why is this round of market trends so difficult? I have shared some views on this in previous articles, and I believe the fundamental reason lies in the fact that there is almost zero original application from on-chain smart contracts in this round of trends.
In contrast to the DeFi, NFT, and blockchain gaming that exploded in the last bull market, this difference is very apparent.
In the last bull market, DeFi could be considered the most authentic on-chain original in the crypto ecosystem. This originality could only occur within smart contracts and could only produce effects on blockchain platforms.
Among the many DeFi applications, the ones that left a particularly deep impression on me are the AMM popularized by Uniswap and the flash loans invented by AAVE.
These two inventions did not exist in any information platform or application in human society before the advent of blockchain technology. Their emergence created entirely new market-making and lending models. The latter even became one of the common tools for hackers to attack DeFi applications.
I believe these two inventions are milestone technologies that can be recorded in the history of blockchain development.
Although NFTs do not have much originality in terms of technology, the paradigm shift they initiated in human cognitive patterns is something that has never been seen in human society before. We had never imagined that a purely virtual item could become a luxury good or be invited into a museum.
Blockchain gaming, while limited in innovation on smart contracts and still heavily reliant on centralized technology, has opened a new window for the gaming industry by incorporating economic incentive mechanisms into games, providing at least a different exploration path in the gaming field.
Among these three areas, especially DeFi and NFTs, their core originality comes from blockchain technology and is on-chain. In other words, without blockchain technology, we would not have seen DeFi, nor could we have imagined NFTs.
It is precisely because of this originality from on-chain that we witnessed a vigorous bull market in the last round, where the rapid advancement of the crypto ecosystem could almost completely ignore external environmental interference and even attracted widespread external attention.
However, in this round of market trends, so far, all the potential emerging tracks we have seen are either still lingering or still exploring.
Among these potential emerging tracks, I once believed that the one most likely to trigger on-chain originality again is the Bitcoin inscription ecosystem.
If this ecosystem can truly solve the technical barriers and troubles, its imaginative space will be limitless. Unfortunately, so far, this track is still lingering.
Perhaps this technical barrier and trouble can never be resolved?
Aside from the inscription ecosystem, the only other track I believe has the potential to rise is the AI agent track.
However, there is a significant difference between the AI agent track and the inscription track: its core originality is not on-chain, but off-chain, in the centralized AI track.
An event that occurred last month can clearly illustrate this point:
Last year, when DeepSeek made its debut, AI16Z quickly announced that their framework had integrated DeepSeek. Other AI agents soon followed suit, announcing their integration as well.
This scramble to announce integration indicates that: whoever does not use the latest tools may fall behind technologically in the AI agent space.
Therefore, the real arms race in this track, the true nuclear weapon, is AI tools, not blockchain technology.
Since the core originality of this track is not on-chain, why do I still have such high hopes for it, believing it could be an emerging track?
Because once AI agents become an ecosystem and form a "nation," I believe the most suitable financial facilities for this ecosystem and "nation" are permissionless and censorship-resistant blockchains, and the most suitable medium for value exchange in this ecosystem and "nation" is globally unobstructed crypto assets.
The AI agent ecosystem will truly realize the large-scale implementation and widespread adoption of crypto assets and crypto technology.
However, to achieve this scenario, the premise is that AI agents need to thrive.
And this prosperity requires AI agents to surpass a certain critical point in both quantity and quality.
Clearly, this critical point has not yet been reached. Before this critical point arrives, we may have to endure, wait, and observe.
Without on-chain originality and without large-scale implementation and popular application scenarios, this ecosystem has become what we currently see: player competition and emotional fluctuations. A slight external or internal news stimulus and emotional fluctuation can attract the ecosystem's attention and trigger market fluctuations.
This intense volatility and uncertainty is what we commonly feel as "difficult."
However, I still believe in the future of the ecosystem and that the bright day will surely come.
During this period of endurance, waiting, and observation, we might as well focus less on market trends and engage more in reading and learning.
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