Yesterday, due to discussing some inappropriate content, the article was taken down. It seems that we really cannot talk about that Pionex stuff; the attitude is very firm. Even if I advise everyone not to touch it, I still cannot post about it. For such explicitly prohibited matters, everyone should have a clear understanding in their hearts.

Continuing with today's market, Bitcoin surged above 98,000 this morning, getting very close to the large cycle triangle top of 99,000. According to the framework previously drawn by the Hunter, there was a pause at 97,000, another at 98,000, and then a quick break of the cycle triangle top, directly pushing towards 100,000. Here, I will detail the subsequent specific movements.

First, I want to share my own view. I hope the market does not rush to the triangle top today but instead pulls back for some adjustment. A too rapid surge is not a good thing.

In the Hunter's plan at the beginning of the week, the recent market fluctuations are primarily characterized by a slow rise. During this slow rise, there will be continuous retests to confirm support. The reason the market could not stabilize after the previous surge was due to the limited amount of funds within the circle and insufficient external inflow, which made it difficult to maintain the price. This issue is caused by the overall environment of the cryptocurrency market. Without solving the liquidity problem, it is hard to have opportunities for sustained upward movement after a surge.

Since this problem cannot be solved, we can only adopt a different approach: through a slow rise accompanied by continuous retests, gradually solidifying the bottom. This way, we can continuously exhaust the bears and force the bulls to exit their positions during the slow rise, or even make it so that the bullish side cannot find reasons to go long, because the price increase is limited and there are too many retests, resulting in a lackluster market.

In the fluctuations of the past week, we have also seen this situation.

First, on Tuesday, the triangle bottom was broken, accelerating the decline to 93,000, completing a V-shaped reversal.

The break of support at 95,000 from the triangle bottom accelerated the decline, proving that the periodic weak downward washout market has reached its final acceleration. With the acceleration of the decline, the weak downward washout has already ended.

Starting from the drop to 93,300, a strong reversal began, indicating that although the current market is weak, every time the price approaches the institutional cost price during a decline, it triggers strong support, proving the institutions' attitude and determination. There is no possibility of a one-sided downward trend.

From the fluctuations on Wednesday and Thursday, we can see that every time 97,000 and 98,000 are touched, they encounter retests, followed by strong breakthroughs. This indicates that the overall market is indeed in a slow rising state. During this slow rise, the retests gradually solidify the bottom, confirm support, and ensure that the upward trend can continue without a rapid acceleration that lacks capital involvement, leading to a flash crash.

Whether at 97,000 or 98,000, there is enough attraction for the bears. On one hand, the limited price increase prevents the bulls from entering the market, and on the other hand, the previous market created an inertia of thought through rapid spikes, making 97,000-98,000 rational short positions. If mere words are not enough for everyone to understand, we can use graphics to prove it.

You see, the bears are already being gradually exhausted. We continue to infer that if the bears at the shorting point yesterday were stopped out, and today the price has reached above 98,000, they can only passively continue to short. Moreover, the upper 99,000 is the top resistance of the triangle's oscillation convergence, which is undoubtedly another exhaustion point.

Then we continue to infer today's market. Following the slow rising rhythm, if it directly accelerates to above 99,000, it clearly contradicts the slow rising rhythm, indicating that there is still a possibility of a pullback today. However, it absolutely cannot be a pullback after touching 99,000, as that would allow the bears to profit and escape. There are only two ways.

The first: fake break above 99,000, sweep out the bears' stop losses, then turn down, create an upper spike, and after repeated tugging at 99,000, break through.

The second: gradually pull back in the afternoon, break below 98,000 and accelerate, retest around 96,500 to confirm support, and then make a unilateral rise in the evening to break through.

For me personally, I hope there can be a pullback in the afternoon to avoid the hassle of being tugged at 99,000 repeatedly. However, this is just a hope; we still need to see how the market moves in the subsequent situation. But I want to affirm that regardless of which way it goes, the final result will still be to break through 99,000 and stabilize the price above 100,000.

If it is the first situation, I will wait for the first break above 99,000, and then chase long on the second approach to 99,000, with a stop loss of 500 points.

If it is the second situation, it will be much simpler: go long in the 96,800-97,200 area, with a stop loss at 96,200, and reduce positions by 50% at 99,000, holding on if it breaks through.

The long-term trend maintains the framework system unchanged. 97,000-98,000 has already been broken in sequence, and the subsequent target is to break through 99,000, stabilize above 100,000, and after some tugging, steadily advance to 110,000, then accelerate upward, ending the first round of the rise in the first half of the year.

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