Macroeconomic Interpretation: Recently, the cryptocurrency market has been like a roller coaster. After experiencing a "late spring chill" in February, Bitcoin's price rebounded from a low of $93,000 to above $98,000, with a 24-hour increase of 1.2%. Behind this warming trend lies not only the macro support from the easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict but also hints of structural changes within the industry. Interestingly, while the market's attention is focused on price fluctuations, participants in the Bitcoin ecosystem have quietly begun their own "metamorphosis."

The mining community has taken the lead in launching a transformation breakthrough. VanEck's latest report reveals that U.S. listed mining companies are accelerating their penetration into AI and high-performance computing fields. Companies like Cipher Mining and Iris Energy have begun allocating 20-30% of their power capacity to non-mining businesses. This "not putting all eggs in one basket" strategy stems from the uncertainty of on-chain transaction fee income—despite the ETF craze allowing miners to enjoy a short-term surge in fees, the rise of off-chain solutions like the Lightning Network and centralized exchanges is shaking the foundations of traditional mining models. One analyst quipped, "Amidst the roar of mining machines, whispers of AI chips are hidden."

The fragmentation of the market landscape is becoming increasingly evident in the flow of funds. The data showing a net outflow of $364.77 million from the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF on February 21 acted like a cold shower, dampening some investors' enthusiasm. However, there may be hidden intricacies behind this: CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju pointed out that altcoin trading volume has surged to 2.7 times that of BTC, with stablecoin holders flooding into the altcoin market. This "openly repairing the road while secretly crossing the river" tactic subverts the traditional understanding of market cycles defined by BTC's market share. As an old Wall Street saying goes, "When everyone is focused on the main stage, the real performance often takes place backstage."

Strategic players are plotting a higher-dimensional chess game. MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor's "National Bitcoin Reserve Plan," proposed at the Conservative Political Action Conference, is arguably the boldest financial proposal of the year. He suggested that the U.S. government spend $39.2 billion to acquire 4 million BTC (about 20% of the circulating supply), a scale that makes the $29 billion valuation of the existing 395 million barrels of strategic oil reserves seem trivial. Although this idea has been viewed by some economists as a "crypto utopia," the underlying game theory logic is intriguing—if sovereign funds really enter the market in large numbers, Bitcoin could leap from being "digital gold" to a "strategic deterrent asset."

However, movements in Washington cast a shadow over this crypto feast. Economist Wang Fuzhong warned that the Trump family's recent aggressive actions in the cryptocurrency space, from issuing coins to promoting the "crypto capital of the world," seem lively but actually harbor risks. If the former president, known for his "art of the deal," truly incorporates Bitcoin into strategic reserves, it could lead to an absurd drama of decentralized spirit clashing with centralized power. As a joke circulating in the crypto community goes, "When politicians start loving blockchain, the ideal of code autonomy is not far from bankruptcy."

In this multi-party struggle, the market has shown remarkable resilience. Despite the short-term disturbances caused by ETF fund outflows and regulatory uncertainties, the diversification transformation of mining companies has objectively enhanced the industry's risk resistance. Notably, miners transitioning to AI may inadvertently be building the infrastructure for the integration of Web3 and AI, which is historically more significant than mere price fluctuations. As one anonymous miner self-deprecatingly tweeted, "With one hand we mine Bitcoin, and with the other we train large models; the future of humanity relies on these graphics cards."

Looking ahead, the crypto market may present a "tale of two extremes." The psychological pressure and technical resistance Bitcoin faces at the $100,000 mark should not be underestimated, but the restructuring of computing power brought about by mining company transformations, the long-term positioning of institutional investors, and the potential emergence of tokenized government bond experiments are all accumulating energy for the next cycle. Meanwhile, the activity in the altcoin market resembles secondary succession in a tropical rainforest—when Bitcoin, the "top community," temporarily halts its expansion, various innovative protocols are seizing the opportunity to grow wildly. In this endless evolutionary game, the only certainty is that once the Pandora's box of blockchain is opened, it is hard to close again.

LTC Data Analysis:

According to Coinank data, driven by ETF speculation, Litecoin's daily trading volume reached $9.6 billion. Previously, Bloomberg ETF analysis indicated a 90% chance of approval for a spot Litecoin ETF by the end of the year.

We believe that the recent surge in Litecoin's trading volume to $9.6 billion is closely related to expectations of spot ETF approval. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas's team has repeatedly emphasized that the probability of Litecoin ETF approval before the end of 2025 is as high as 90%, mainly based on its similar proof-of-work (PoW) mechanism and commodity property positioning, which may reduce the SEC's regulatory resistance. Additionally, the initiation of the SEC's public comment process and the new acting chair's open attitude towards crypto products further bolster market confidence.

The potential impact of ETF approval expectations on Litecoin can be analyzed from three aspects:

Short-term market sentiment drive: The current surge in trading volume reflects investors' early positioning in anticipation of ETF benefits, similar to the influx of funds before Bitcoin ETF approval. Historical data shows that while there may be profit-taking shortly after Bitcoin ETF approval, long-term capital inflows are significant, and Litecoin may replicate this path.

Price elasticity space: Litecoin's market capitalization is relatively small (around $18 billion). If its ETF fund inflow reaches 30% of Bitcoin's, the price could see several-fold increases. However, it is crucial to maintain the key support level of $60-70 to sustain the upward trend.

Regulatory and market risks: Although the probability of approval is high, the SEC's definitions of "securities" and "commodities" are not yet fully clarified, and the Litecoin ETF still needs to pass the 19b-4 and S-1 form reviews. Furthermore, if the actual fund inflow after ETF launch falls short of expectations, it may trigger a price correction.

In the long run, if the Litecoin ETF is successfully approved, it will accelerate institutional capital entry and enhance its application scenarios in payment and value storage. However, the cryptocurrency market remains influenced by macro policies (such as Federal Reserve interest rate cuts) and Bitcoin's trends, requiring investors to balance short-term speculation with long-term value logic.

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