Master Discusses Hot Topics:

In fact, the current price of Bitcoin is not surprising at all; overall investor sentiment is still quite cold. To put it simply, people lack confidence in the market, especially in the U.S., where there are currently no real positive news to attract investors.

Although Bitcoin has been fluctuating within a range over the weekend without significant volatility, this is actually due to the absence of major negative news and no particularly strong positive news. So before this morning's drop, Bitcoin's price was like being trapped in a box, with no one having enough motivation to push it up or down.

The key macro data this week is the U.S. core PCE data for January, which will be released on Friday. This data is more reflective of the Federal Reserve's decision-making direction compared to CPI and unemployment rates, as it is the core indicator that the Fed cares about the most.

Last time, although the CPI data was not very good, the PPI did provide some hope, and the market expects this time the core PCE will drop from 0.8% to 0.6%. Although I personally feel this data may not have a significant impact on the market, as it is almost a certainty that the Fed will not cut interest rates in March, everyone already has a baseline expectation.

However, if the core PCE does indeed fall, market sentiment may adjust slightly, which could have a positive impact on Bitcoin and the overall market. Besides this data, there are no particularly noteworthy macro events to pay attention to this week.

While many friends in Europe and America are still speculating whether Russia and Ukraine will stop fighting this week, I think the possibility is low, as there are no obvious signs of improvement in the situation. Even if there is a trend towards stopping, people still feel it is difficult to achieve in the short term.

But if a ceasefire agreement can indeed be reached in March, it would definitely be a major positive for the market, as the Russia-Ukraine war has dragged down global supply chains and inflation. If it stops, inflation pressure may ease, which could positively influence the Fed's future decisions and even affect the pace of interest rate hikes.

Additionally, from the perspective of market sentiment, everyone is still waiting for a breakout point. I have always believed that the market is just one breath away from a release, like being too tightly compressed, ready to burst at any moment. If this breath can be released through the Fed's monetary policy or some stronger positive news, the market's trend may change.

The former could be a signal for the Fed to loosen its policy, while the latter would be the long-awaited implementation of Trump's Bitcoin strategic reserve policy. This is actually quite interesting because if significant funds enter the market, it could bring a wave of upward movement.

Overall, starting this week, I still lean towards a bearish outlook, especially for Bitcoin. Although Ethereum has seen slightly stronger capital rotation recently, if Bitcoin continues to fall, it will be difficult for Ethereum to stand alone.

Especially if Bitcoin falls below 93.3k, market sentiment may further deteriorate, potentially leading to greater selling pressure. For this week's market, I believe that bearish sentiment will temporarily outweigh bullish sentiment.

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Levels Reference:

First Resistance Level: 97000

Second Resistance Level: 96500

Support Levels Reference:

First Support Level: 94800

Second Support Level: 93500

Today's Suggestions:

Currently, if Bitcoin does not continue to break below the low point and the upward correction trend continues, it may have a chance to break through the descending trend line shown in the chart, increasing the probability of a short-term trend reversal.

During the day, attention should be paid to the movement of the 20-day moving average, setting 96.5K (close to the 200-day moving average and the descending trend line area) as a strong resistance level. In the European session, do not easily make trend reversal judgments without trading volume, as the resistance from the 200-day moving average is very strong. Therefore, under the current circumstances, it is still necessary to maintain a bearish viewpoint.

If Bitcoin retests the high point, new upward factors are needed. Usually, there are many trapped chips above, so a large trading volume is required to break through the 200-day moving average.

In the short term, if the first support level can stabilize, it can be seen as a range of rising lows, and attempts can be made for very short-term operations. Additionally, attention can be paid to the movement of the 20-day moving average, with the 60-day, 200-day, and 120-day moving averages serving as resistance levels above.

Since Bitcoin is fluctuating within a converging pattern, flexible responses to long and short operations are needed in the very short term. Remember not to be overly optimistic, as the resistance above is strong, so the market should be viewed from an objective perspective.

2.24 Master’s Band Trading Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Not currently referenced

Short Entry Reference: Light short in the 96500-97500 range, Target: 94800-93500

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