Recently, I've been a bit tired. This afternoon, I accidentally fell asleep and woke up to find the situation not looking good. Firstly, there hasn't been a strong rebound during the main trading hours in the U.S., and the U.S. stock market is also declining. Even the dollar and gold are falling, creating a very poor sentiment. The main issue now is that there isn't a clear reason for the decline, such as the previous occurrence of DeepSeek, macro data, or tariffs; there is currently no obvious "statement" holding responsibility for the drop.

Given this situation, it's hard to determine where the decline will stop and at what price a rebound might begin. Therefore, my personal view is to see if we can halt the decline tonight. The current drop is likely frustrating for Americans as well, especially with the recent large sell-offs of #BTC and #ETH spot ETFs, leading many investors to panic.

In fact, 2025 will be a very challenging time. The probability of black swan events will significantly increase under high interest rates, but I still believe there are opportunities in Q1. Of course, this is just my personal opinion. If I were to be pessimistic about the market, my consistent view has been that starting in Q2, the market may gradually turn unfavorable. There should still be some opportunities in Q1, while Q2's opportunities will rely entirely on strategic reserves, but the macro environment is likely to be unfavorable.

I checked the CME's BTC futures, and there is a gap at the position of $92,755 to $93,570, with another gap below at $77,930 to $80,670. According to metaphysical theories, both gaps should be filled, but I personally find it hard to imagine a drop below $80,000. Therefore, the probability of filling the gap upwards might be greater, especially with the core PCE data coming out on Friday. If this data is good, it could very well boost user sentiment.

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