1. Fundamental and On-Chain Data Analysis
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Bitcoin Whale Holdings Changes: Observing the performance of the top 100 on-chain whales, we find that there has been a significant change in the market. The 12th ranked whale reduced its holdings by 1,000 bitcoins, the 22nd ranked whale continuously had 23,277 bitcoins flowing out of its wallet, while the 48th ranked whale increased its holdings by 27 bitcoins, and the 59th and 65th ranked whales increased their holdings by 218 bitcoins and reduced their holdings by 250 bitcoins, respectively. Overall, the number of bitcoins in whale wallet addresses is showing an outflow trend. This phenomenon is likely a reaction to the risks following Bitcoin breaking the 90K mark, indicating a cautious attitude in the market towards the future trend of Bitcoin.
Other On-Chain Data Dynamics: In addition to the changes in Bitcoin whale holdings, on-chain data reveals other important information. A Bybit hacker liquidated 100,000 ethers within four days, with a total selling amount of 250 million USD. Meanwhile, previously purchased LINK tokens were sold at a loss, and 96,155 SOL were transferred to Binance after canceling staking, indicating a strong intent to liquidate. Additionally, Bybit has repaid 40,000 ethers to BG, and whales sold 9.47 million USD worth of Trump coins, realizing losses to exit the market.
Notably, a whale that had been silent for 2.5 years deposited 200 bitcoins into an exchange, which may signal upcoming selling behavior. Overall, these data suggest that the market maintains a cautious attitude, with investors actively avoiding risks.
Liquidation Data: Yesterday's liquidation data showed that the market was highly volatile. Long positions accounted for 80% - 90% of the liquidation share, with a total liquidation amount reaching 885 million USD, while short positions faced liquidations of 195 million USD, bringing the total liquidation positions to 1.079 billion USD. After Bitcoin broke the 90K mark, the long market suffered a devastating blow, reflecting a sharp change in the balance of power between bulls and bears, and investors need to be wary of market risks.
Fear Index: The current fear index has reached 26, and if it falls below 20, it will approach an extreme fear state. This indicates that the entire market is currently in a state of panic. However, from another perspective, when the fear index drops below 20, there may be opportunities for a short-term strong rebound, and investors should closely monitor this signal to seize potential investment opportunities.
Cryptocurrency ETF: On February 24, 2025, the outflow from cryptocurrency ETFs for Ethereum and Bitcoin totaled 590 million USD. Recently, the inflow has been minimal while the outflow has been increasing. This trend indicates that the market is not optimistic about the short to medium-term cryptocurrency trends, and risks are gradually intensifying. As Jiugge has repeatedly reminded, the continuous outflow from Bitcoin ETFs is an important signal of increasing market risk, and Bitcoin's breakdown is within reason.
Altcoin Index: The altcoin index currently stands at 25, indicating that altcoins have failed to outperform Bitcoin. When Bitcoin breaks key levels, most altcoins experience rapid declines, with only a small number maintaining a strong position. This phenomenon reminds investors to be cautious in selecting investment targets during market fluctuations and to focus on altcoins with resilience and growth potential.
2. Technical Analysis Interpretation
BTC: Bitcoin's price touched the 382 Fibonacci retracement level at 86,500 USD yesterday, followed by a slight upward rebound, but the rebound strength was very weak. After breaking the 90K mark, there is a significant empty space below Bitcoin, and it may subsequently test the 50 level (79,400 USD) and the 618 level (around 72,000 USD). Investors need to prepare mentally for potential price declines.
From the perspective of rebounds, Jiugge believes that if Bitcoin rebounds, the maximum should be around 92K, which is the breakdown level. However, currently, Bitcoin has not shown significant volume on the daily chart; although the volume has increased compared to before, it is still comparable to the levels on February 3 and January 20, and has not reached a high or massive level. Therefore, the likelihood of a strong rebound in the short term is low. This breakdown is likely the beginning of a bear market, and everyone should not rush to bottom-fish but patiently wait for potential stabilization points below.
Futures Gap Analysis: We also need to pay attention to the impact of futures gaps. The futures gap formed in November is around 78,000, and after several months, this gap may be filled. When Bitcoin retraces to the 50 level, it can be considered that the gap has been filled, and after filling, this gap will form a strong support level, most likely becoming a point for a strong rebound.
Additionally, a small futures gap was formed yesterday, indicating that there is also a demand for a rebound around 92K. However, due to the current insufficient volume of Bitcoin, it is still uncertain when the rebound will occur.
ETH: Ethereum's price trend is similar to Bitcoin's, with a long bearish candle appearing the day before yesterday, followed by a pin bar and a small hammer yesterday, but both in strength and length, they are not as strong as the previous long bearish candle. This indicates that the previous K-line has had a decisive impact on the subsequent trend.
Next, Ethereum's price will test the previous low around 2,100 USD, which is near the upward trend line, and this trend is basically without suspense.
From the Fibonacci retracement perspective, Ethereum has currently retraced downwards, testing the 618 level, with 2,200 - 2,100 being a very important support range for Ethereum. If this support level is broken, the consequences could be dire. Everyone should closely monitor Ethereum's price movements in this range and adjust investment strategies in a timely manner.
IP: IP performed well yesterday, rebounding by 49%, reaching the 382 level at its peak. Its current support level is at 5.2 USD, where a stop in decline and upward rebound may occur. Investors can pay attention to IP's performance at this support level to find suitable investment opportunities.
VANA: VANA dipped to around 7.2 yesterday, then closed with a bullish candle, and volume increased below. This indicates that VANA's upward momentum still exists. Its resistance level is at 12.462 USD, the 236 level. Investors can continue to monitor VANA's trend and invest at the right time.
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